Saturday, November 29, 2008

NFL Picks - Week 13

It’s becoming more and more obvious that Loren and I have no idea what we are doing. Loren put up another “0”fer this past week, while I was able to get 1 right. However that puts me up 5. I’ll go get my Marino Jersey ready.

Derek

Carolina @ Green Bay
Carolina. I think Green Bay is sliding down the charts. I think teams have figured out what they do. Carolina on the other hand will be getting a bad taste out of their mouth. They have the game to play in cold weather. RUN RUN RUN. 24-13

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
New Orleans. I like the way New Orleans is playing that and they get back Reggie “I catch more than a wide receiver” Bush. 38-14

Atlanta @ San Diego
San Diego. I just can’t trust the Falcons, prove it first. San Diego has been there before and I’ll go with them. 21-17

Pittsburgh @ New England
New England. Mark my words New England will win the rest of their games this season. The O is clicking and will roll people from here on out. 38-20

Chicago @ Minnesota
Minnesota. AP will run over the Bears D. QB’s are a blight on this game. 17-13

Loren

Carolina @ Green Bay Carolina. The Saints exposed a weakness in the Packer's D, and while the Panthers don't have the same passing attack, they can go vertical and have a better ground game to complement it. 34-27

New Orleans @ Tampa Bay New Orleans. Brees is a legitimate MVP and has a chance to break the all time single season passing record. Tampa's D is better than Green Bay's, but the Saints should still be able to get up the field. 35-17

Atlanta @ San Diego San Diego. It's at home, and the Chargers can smell the Bronco's blood in the water. Despite Atlanta thumping Carolina last week, I still think they're too inconsistent to pull off a big road win against a physical team. But they're not far off...27-16

Pittsburgh @ New England Pitt. Like the rest of the country, I'm curious to see if Cassel can handle a team that punches you in the mouth as often as the Steelers. Pittsburgh can also score in a myriad of ways, but if they get in a shootout with New England they're in trouble. 27-21

Chicago @ Minnesota Chicago. Another tossup game. I can't find a reason to pick one team over another other than possibly the QB situation in Minny. They don't have the ability to efficiently execute an offensive scheme on a regular basis. 31-19


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Saturday, November 22, 2008

NFL Picks - Week 12

Last week's results first. Derek went into the week with a 3 game lead, the largest lead of the season so far.

Well it got bigger thanks to Washington's amazing ability to beat themselves at every opportunity. Derek called Dallas over Washington and Tampa over Minnesota, while I picked Denver over Atlanta.

The net result is a +4 for Derek over the season. Plenty of games left, no desperation yet. Everything is fine. No reason to panic...


Derek

New York at Tennessee
Tennessee. Besides home field advantage, I just dont believe the Jets are that good of team. Their wins are not that impressive and I'm not a Farve fan. So I'll go out on a limb and stick with the undefeated team. 24-18

New England at Miami
Miami. A rematch of the first glimps of the wildcat formation. I don't think this will turn out ot be blow out like that game but I think the Dolphins will have a good chance at home. 24-20

Minnesota at Jacksonville.
Jacksonville. Power running versus power defense. Each way really. I guess I'll go with the home team. Loser is out of the playoff race all together. 17-10

Carolina at Atlanta
Carolina. The Falcons have been a big surprise this season. But I'll go with a proven team. They'll run it down the Falcons throat. 24-14

Green Bay at New Orleans
New Orleans. Packers just are not as good as they started out. New Orleans has too many weapons and will be able to move up and down the turf. 31-13


Loren

Jets @ Titans
Titans. They have a strong defense and a reliable running game, the two most important factors for long term success. The Jets counter with a very solid defense and Brett Favre. Guess which one has been providing the winning margin... 34-16

Pats @ Dolphins
Dolphins. As you'll hear in our upcoming show, I think the offensive sets used by Miami are perfect against the Pats defense. It forces them, slowed by age and injury already, to adjust before attacking. It's perfectly crafted to get Miami's players into space before the D can close on them. I agree with Derek, it will probably be closer. 26-17

Vikings @ Jags
Jags. I can't take Minnesota against any legitimate defense; there are simply too few options outside of Peterson. The Jags haven't exactly been lighting it up, either, but they're also home team. 20-14

Packers @ Saints
Packers. What's up with all these 5-5 teams. To make the matter more confusing, they all seem to have lost to each other. It makes it a little hard to prognosticate. However, I believe that the Packers can play better while the Saints are too porous on D to win consistently. Plus Bush may not play and even if he does, he won't be 100%. 35-24


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Sunday, November 16, 2008

Football Picks

Okay, so we haven't been on the ball lately, what with my working and Derek playing the proud papa. However, as of our last count, Derek is up by three as the result of a horrifying week by me.

The last time we published, Derek only managed to for 3 for 5, but that beat my 0-5. So I need to pick up a few this week or we'll get out of hand quickly.

On to the picks:

Derek

Denver @ Atlanta
Atlanta. Denver seems to be sinking. Their offense has not been the same as it was earlier in the year. Atlanta on the other hand has been a big surprise this year. I’ll go with the rookie QB he should have a good game against a bad team. 24-14

Chicago @ Green Bay
Green Bay. The Packers are another team not doing as well has they were earlier in the season. However I still don’t think Chicago is that good of team and I think Aaron Rodgers will pick it up at home. 17-13

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay. A good D versus a great RB. This all boils down to ball control and I think Garcia will be able to manage the game perfectly. 17-14

Dallas @ Washington
Dallas. Romo’s back but I don’t think he will be the only difference in this game. The NFC East is due for a shake up and this game is the beginning. 28-10

San Diego @ Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh. San Diego just does not have it this year. Roethlisberger will try to take a step back and control the game. 27-14

Loren

Denver @ Atlanta
Denver. Don't buy this stuff about Denver's offense sinking. They went cold for a while but pulled it back together at the tail end of the Denver game. They've had to incorporate a number of new players into the offense due to injuries and that normally takes a couple of weeks. They will be hitting on all cylinders against an inexperienced Atlanta defense that will play too far of fthe receivers. Cutler should have a big day and Denver gets a win to keep them ahead in the pathetic AFC West. 35-17

Chicago @ Green Bay
Green Bay. This was a game I looked at closely as a possible game to pick up on Derek. I'm behind and I'm going to have to go out on a couple of limbs to get back into it. However, this ain't the game. A healthier Aaron Rogers at home with the Lambeau crowd spells doom for a
Chicago team that is inconsistent at best. 27-21

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay
Minnesota. This is going to be a tough game, but I think Minnesota will be able to win the time-of-posession battle. Peterson looks like he's got his legs back under him, and as long as Frerotte doesn't make too many mistakes...OMG, I can't believe I'm betting on Frerotte on the road. Someone shoot me now. 24-9

Dallas @ Washington
Washington. Dallas' defense is blaming everyone but themselves. Yes, Romo will help on offense, but I see Washington throwing the kitchen sink at him, knocking him down at every opportunity, and testing his hand to see if he really can throw on a line with the injured finger. Portis should have a good game, but I think it will be Cooley, Moss, and Randall-El that have the really big games against the soft secondary in Dallas. Plus it's a home game so the Skins get the nod. 31-30

San Diego @ Pittsburgh
Pitt. It doesn't seem likely that the Chargers can get back on track against one of the harder hitting defenses in the league. The best sub-plot for me is Tomlinson against Polamalu. I love the commercial showing them both growing up then going at each other in the pros, and even though Tomlinson seems to have lost a step this year, it's still good to see these powerful guys play some smash-mouth. 27-17


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Sunday, November 2, 2008

Thoughts on Blazers' win and losses

Ah, the NBA season has reached us again and all is right with the world. At least it seems to be this year with an exciting Blazers team ready to make a run at the playoffs (healthy Oden or not).

We all know the performance against the Lakers was mostly first night jitters coupled with the team's confusion about Oden's presence on the floor. I'm not taking anything away from the Lakers. They are legitimately good...no, great. They are legitimately great. In fact, this Laker's team could go down as one of the best all time and that's no hyperbole. This is a once every 10-15 years kind of team. (Excuse me, I just vomited in my mouth.)

So the Blazers shouldn't feel too bad about what happened on opening night. Granted, there were few positive things to take from that game, and it was immediately apparent that McMillan has a whole lot of decisions/adjustments to be made. But I, like most of you, was more curious about how we would respond at our home opener and, subsequently, the next night in Phoenix.

Let's start off with the good. Against both San Antonio and Phoenix, the Blazers looked faster, more athletic, and more cohesive than most of last year and a definite improvement from the Laker game.

Against the Spurs, we got the leadership type of play we need from both Roy and Aldridge and the new additions of Rudy and Batum are already paying dividends. We all anticipated that Rudy, at least, would likely be the spark plug for this team but I think it's safe to say, even this early in the season, that both of them are going to exceed expectations.

Channing Frye and Joel are both in great shape. It's can be easy to think since you're not going to be the starter, since Greg Oden is going is the new face of the franchise, since we have a deep team, that you don't need to come out ready to run decent minutes. I'm proud of both Joel and Channing for being ready to bring it from game 1.

McMillan played a masterful game against Popovich, getting the match ups we needed most of the time. Sure, he probably could have put Batum on Parker earlier in the game and he could have found more ways to take advantage of/prepare the team for the zone D the Spurs threw us. However, some of that goes on the players, too. There was one sequence were Rudy absolutely demanded the ball on the far side of the court because he recognized the poor zone match up on the baseline. Those head's up plays rub off, they get everyone to pay attention and look for the match ups, make the extra pass, see the whole court.

Now, for the bad.

This team could easily be 0-3 right now. The Spurs shouldn't have been in position to make a 15 footer at the buzzer to win it. One of the major problems that plagued us last year is still rearing its ugly head...

Perimeter defense.

Fisher, Farmar, Parker, and Nash all pretty much penetrated at will. Blake is a decent defender against a straight ahead PG. Unfortunately, our schedule is riddled with slasher/scorer PGs. This Blazers team doesn't have the discipline yet to use help defense correctly the majority of the time. This leads to easy kick outs (Spurs) or open cutters (Suns). Something has to give. We can't allow PGs to get in the lane at will.

Maybe Batum, with his wingspan and quickness, will be the answer. But putting him on the other team's PG means we can't use his length against the 2 and 3. It also means he has to play against the other team's starting unit, placing him more in our starting unit. And that ultimately leads to less playing time for Blake or the SF, be it Outlaw, Rudy, or Martell.

I also have a bone to pick with Roy. Why does he consistently hold the ball and wait for the defender to set his feet? I can't count the number of times he did this against the Spurs and Suns. He did the same thing last year so I don't think he's just easing his way into the season. Roy likes to take the pass, tuck the ball on his hip, take that slow half-step back with his lead foot, and stand still for 2-3 seconds looking at the basket, the defense, the lane, etc.

STOP IT! All that does is give time for the defender to close on you, cut off the left or right lane, and allow the other players to make defensive adjustments. Why is no one else talking about this?

Roy is good enough that he can usually still take advantage of the match up. But if we want to start tearing up defenses the way they are tearing us up, he's going to have to make more moves as soon as he receives the ball. This will force defenses to collapse and that always opens up the floor.

The last negative I'm going to talk about is nothing the players or the coaches can do anything about. We are getting about half the calls we should be getting, continuing a theme from last year. I don't know if this is because we are still perceived as being the young and inexperience team. Or maybe we're allowing teams to physically dominate us (don't kid yourselves, it's true) and the refs always give more calls to the aggressive team. Whatever it is, it's painfully obvious that we're going to have to fight the refs, at least in the early going this year. I hope the calls even out later in the year, but don't hold your breath.

All in all, I'm still very excited about this team and our playoff chances this year. There's a lot to be enthused about, a little to be worried about (but there always is), and 78 more games to go.

Go Blazers!


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