NFL Week 8 picks

For the first week this season I'm ahead in the overall standings. I went 4-2 last week while Loren dropped 4 games, leaving our records at 25-17 and 24-18. I don't know if it'll last long but I'm hoping to put some distance between us this week.

Minnesota at Carolina

Derek - Carolina. Ponder played well last week, but do you really think he can do it again? Heck McNabb played well the week before and they still got crushed. The Vikings have to hope to control the clock, but even then can the control Newton and the deep pass to Smith? I don't think so.

Loren – Minnesota. Loved the way Ponder played last week and they nearly gave Green Bay more than they could handle. In this game, it comes down to the Panthers giving up the most rushing yards per game. AP will have a huge day, Minnesota will control the clock, and Carolina picks up another loss.

New England at Pittsburgh

Derek - New England. When was the last time the Pats lost at home in the regular season? Yeah I have no idea either. Pittsburgh is playing better but they won't be able to keep up with the Pats. Biggest surprise this year? The Steelers only have 1 turnover on defense, aint gonna get it done against the Pats.

Loren - Pittsburgh. Just a hunch here. New England gives up a lot of yards through the air and a lot of points. That won't cut it against Pittsburgh's defense which, while not as spry as they once were, still comes after you like a freight train. This is the perfect opportunity for Pitt to reassert themselves in the AFC.

Dallas at Philadelphia

Derek - Dallas. Did I really pick Dallas? I went back and forth on this and it came down to Dallas front line being able to get to Vick and the Eagles front line looking like a broken sieve, just letting the running yardage pile up.

Loren – Philadelphia. Philly is coming off a bye, playing at home, and should be largely healthy. Meanwhile, a lot of people are making a big deal out of DeMarco Murray. Give it a week for defenses to plan for him and he'll look mortal again. He'll have to play like Superman, though, for Dallas to win because the Eagles will shut down the Cowboys' passing game.

Indianapolis at Tennessee

Derek - Tennessee. The Colts are bad, maybe not 62-7 bad but bad, in fact we could have seen that team just give up this past week. But you can't pick the Colts to win any games until they show you something.

Loren - Tennessee. I don't think this is a gimme for the Titans. Painter, despite Monday's embarrassment, has proven capable. The Titans are just going to throw too much at the Colts, both offensively and defensively. Here's the big question, though: if the Colts end up with the first pick, do they take Luck?

Washington at Buffalo

Derek - Buffalo. Washington surprised some folks out of the gate but now they have a QB controversy and their best WR is out for 5 weeks. Doesn't look good going against the Bills who can pound it with the best of them. Oh yeah don't forget about Stevie Johnson over the top.

Loren – Buffalo. Quick, name the team that's fourth in the league in passing yards per game. Nope, Buffalo is only 15th, though with all the hype Fitzpatrick has received you'd think they were in the top 5. Buffalo is, however, fourth in the league in rushing yards per game. Regardless, Washington won't be able to do enough to keep up.

San Diego at Kansas City

Derek - San Diego. I could see the Charges crushing the Chiefs but I could also see a close game. The Chiefs look better lately but they are a running team that can't run. That's not good.

Loren – San Diego. KC has won three in a row and looks like a much improved team. Unfortunately, they just don't have enough D to contain the Chargers. This might be the game that gets Philip Rivers back on track. At least, his fantasy football owners sure hope so.

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NFL Week 7 picks

Try as we might to pick games differently last week we both went 3-3 keeping me one off the pace. Loren is sitting at 22-14 and I'm at 21-15. On to the picks!

Houston @ Tennessee
Loren – Tennessee. Tennessee is coming off a bye week while Houston is coming off a bruising loss against the Ravens. The bye week gives CJ more time to get back in game shape. Meanwhile, Houston’s defense is looking leakier and leakier. Tennessee convincingly at home.
Derek - Houston. I say they have too many injuries for me to pick them right now. The Titans could continue their surprising passing game against a bad pass defense.

Denver @ Miami
Loren – Denver. Really, let’s flip a coin here. I almost picked the Dolphins after Brandon Lloyd was traded from Denver to St. Louis for a pack of pudding pops and a scratch and sniff book. But I figure Tebow is good for three rushing touchdowns against two INTs, while Matt Moore is good for five INTs against 7 bewildered sideline looks. Plus, Brandon Marshall will probably kill a few people on the sidelines because he’s not the center of attention this week.
Derek - Miami. Not that I'm rooting for my team to do well. I mean a loss hear would put us one step closer to getting Luck in the draft, but that doesn't mean I won't be happy if the Dolphins win a home game for the first time in 17 years and beat Tebow in the process.

San Diego @ NY Jets
Loren – San Diego. Yes, Revis is a monster, but Rivers has been around the block a couple of times and won’t be throwing jump balls his way. I like SD’s defense against the Jets’ anemic offense and I like SD’s ground game against the Jets (who are currently giving up almost 135 YPG).
Derek - San Diego. Again I don't like taking teams traveling across the country but the Charges did it once already so lets say their somewhat prepared for it. I just don't think the Jets are that good, the in-fighting will be much worse after this loss and this is the beginning of the Jets missing the playoffs.

Chicago @ Tampa Bay
Loren – Tampa Bay. Which Bucs team shows up, the one shellacked by the 49ers or the one that pushed the Saints around early and controlled enough of the game to hang on? Everyone now knows the secret to beating the Bears is to throw the kitchen sink at Cutler. The Bucs will do that, Freeman will continue to get his groove back, and the Bucs quietly improve to 5-2.
Derek - Chicago. The Bears D is getting their game back and the Bucs are without Blount for the second week in a row, perhaps this will help Freeman's numbers but I see the Bears scoring on D and with Hester they might score on special teams. Cutler and his O line looked 10 times better last week, I think it holds up and Forte scores the winning TD on a goal line leap.

Seattle @ Cleveland
Loren – Cleveland. It’s the first full start of the season for Charlie Whitehurst and Cleveland isn’t going to make it a happy one. The Browns’ defensive front is licking their chops right now, anticipating a shot to be in the top 10 in total sacks by the end of the day. Seattle’s best shot is to run it all day, and they just might do that. It’s still going to be tough to pick up a win in the Dog Pound.
Derek - Cleveland. I think the NY Giants game was a fluke for the Seahawks and again they have to travel the majority of the way across the country. I'll take a good Browns D over a bad Seahawks O.

Atlanta @ Detroit
Loren – Detroit. It’s strength against weakness on both sides of the ball. Detroit’s superhuman aerial attack versus Atlanta’s puke inducing pass defense, and Atlanta’s locomotive ground game against Detroit’s wet paper towel run defense. It comes down to Detroit scoring faster and more frequently than the Falcons.
Derek - Atlanta. I think the Falcons will be able to control the clock and thus limit the number of jump balls Stafford can throw to Megatron. Couple that with no running game for Detroit unless Morris comes out like it's the Fiesta Bowl and you can see the Dirty Birds coming out with a win.

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NFL Week 6 picks

Looks like I caught up a bit to Loren last week going 4-2 while he went down 2-4. I'm down one game overall now.

San Francisco @ Detroit

Loren – Detroit. While San Francisco can be proud of their 4-1 record, it’s a little deceiving. They have yet to play a team with the aerial firepower of the Lions, yet their D is ranked 23^rd against passing offenses. Detroit seems to be putting all the pieces together with Best looking spry, Megatron unstoppable, and the defense refusing to give up big plays.

Derek - Detroit. This is a tough one for me. I think the Lions have been living on the edge for awhile and are due for a loss. But the 49ers traveling more than 2/3s the way across the country. Plus I can't think Alex Smith will have a big day versus Suh and company.

Philadelphia @ Washington

Loren – Washington. Washington’s D is getting a lot of credit, but they haven’t exactly faced the toughest competition. I made this pick before DeAngelo Hall hurt his knee in practice, but I’ll stick with the Redskins here. The Eagle’s line is banged up, Vick is banged up, there are questions and doubts throughout the team. Shanahan’s infuriating (at least to fantasy owners) running-back-by-committee approach is working; whoever has the freshest legs gets the most carries. Aside from all that, I’ve learned not to pick against Shanahan coming off a bye week.

Derek - Philadelphia. The Eagle is a strong bird a proud bird and a predator. These Eagles however are the most dangerous animal there is, an animal backed in to a corner. They know they have to win. Expect many attempts at big plays and some are going to payoff. The skins won't be able to keep up.

Carolina @ Atlanta

Loren – Atlanta. Close call for me. Everyone has made a big deal about the Falcons’ poor numbers through the air, but their poor numbers against opposing passers are even scarier. The Panthers will come out throwing, and Atlanta will have to score in bunches to keep up.

Derek - Carolina. Close one for me too. I originally landed on the Falcons but mainly because they were playing the Panthers. I mean the Panthers suck right? But then I started to think about all the points the Falcons have given up threw the air and then I thought Steve Smith sure is fast, I wonder how fast he can be in a dome. Then I thought hey the Cam Newton guy sure can throw the ball deep. I'm thinking Smith reels in 3 TD catches and the Panthers win a high scoring game.

Buffalo @ NY Giants

Loren – NY Giants. I got killed last week picking road teams and I’m not making the same mistake this week. Yes, it’s a short trip, but it’s worlds apart. The Giants are stinging from an unexpected loss at Seattle and will be on a mission. Buffalo’s defensive numbers are a horror show and I have a feeling they’re going to turn Eli loose. That could be bad or good, but I think it’s worth a win this week.

Derek - Buffalo. Raise your hand if you trust the Giants? I said raise...oh you heard me, I was confused since no one raised their hand. The Giants DB's are banged up and have been that way for awhile now, I expect the Bills to get going through the air and then finish the G Men off on the ground with Jackson.

Houston @ Baltimore

Loren – Baltimore. Baltimore’s D > Houston’s O. That about sums up this pick. Ray Rice will have plenty of room to run and Flacco just needs to manage the game effectively.

Derek - Baltimore. Houston is not looking good on D and Johnson is out and...well they just don't look good. While Baltimore looks like they could be the team to contend with. Ravens big.

Minnesota @ Chicago

Loren – Minnesota. Jahvid Best carved up the Bears’ D like a Thanksgiving turkey. If the Beast could do that, what kind of day will AP have? Chicago’s once vaunted defense currently is 27^th and 28^th in total passing and rushing yards, respectively. Cutler probably has PTSD after scrambling for his life on Monday and it’s a short week for them. Minnesota is going to throw the kitchen sink at him. This could get ugly.

Derek - Chicago. This should be a ground and pound game. Sue AP could make short work of the bears but who thinks Forte can't do the same against the Viks. And I'll take Cutler over McNabb any day.

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NFL week 5 picks

So, Derek has apparently tapped in to my superior brain waves because the last two weeks he’s been picking games the way I would. While I’m flattered and all, that just doesn’t make it very interesting for you.

We’re going to switch it up.

During weeks on which we can’t seem to disagree on games, we’ll select a six pack of close matchups and take turns selecting a victor. Once Derek selects a game, for instance he selected Indianapolis over KC, I have to go with the other team and justify why they should win. Then I get to pick the next game which, in this case, was Philadelphia over Buffalo.

This adds another element to the game in that we are also selecting the games in the order of confidence we have in the outcome. Should be completely confusing and darn near unmanageable. Sounds like fun!

We’ll put an asterisk next to the name of the person who got first pick on the game. Here are the picks:

Kansas City @ Indianapolis
*Derek – Indianapolis. The Colts have been right in their last two games. and Painter looked 100 times better that I've seen him play before. They have a home game against a terrible KC team and their due.
Loren – Kansas City. I actually feel good about this pick. The Chiefs have to win some time, and what better team than the Colts to give them that first victory. Painter will be making his second start and I predict a steady diet of stunts and blitzes to keep him on his toes. If he doesn’t get rid of the ball faster, he’s going to have a miserable day.

Philadelphia @ Buffalo
Derek – Buffalo. I would have leaned to Philly on this one but I do get a home team that's been playing great on the offensive side of the ball, if they can eliminate the Eagles big plays then they have a good chance.
*Loren – Philadelphia. I know Buffalo is on a hot streak, but the Eagles are better than they’ve been playing. Last week was a wake up call and I expect their offense to find a groove against a Buffalo defense with the consistency of a wet paper towel.

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
*Derek – San Francisco. I always lean heavily to the home team when their playing a cross country opponent plus the Bucs are playing on a short week. The 49ers have been impressing me lately with their D. Expect a grind it out football game.
Loren – Tampa Bay. Well, I’m not thrilled about getting stuck with this pick. Tampa is heading across three time zones to play a decent team that just got a morale boost with a big comeback against Philly. Tampa has a quality win over Atlanta and that 27-20 loss to Detroit in the opening week is looking better all the time. LeGarrette Blount looks to be getting on track, now Mike Williams just has to step up and do his best Megatron impression.

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh
Derek – Pittsburgh. Again a home game for a fading/ageing team. I have a feeling the Steelers are against the wall but I don't see them going down easy. Big Ben can sling it with a bad foot and the D will step up.
*Loren – Tennessee. “For some strange reason it had to be, it was all a dream about Tennessee.” This one is just a hunch, but I have a feeling that the Titans’ monstrous D and multi-pronged offense will be enough to handle the Steelers. Roethlisberger is hobbling and is facing a vicious squad. Also, who would have thought that the struggling Titans rushing attack would see Pittsburgh as an opportunity to get going, but the Steelers are giving up almost 120 yards on the ground.

Arizona @ Minnesota
*Derek – Minnesota. A modified cross country trip. The Vikings are not as bad as they should be and expect a huge game from AP and McNabb's best game this year. The Cards D is terrible and the Vikings aren't going to let another half time lead slip away.
Loren – Arizona. Though they are 1-3, the Cardinals’ three losses are via a combined 8 points. They have to be better against the pass and they really need to figure out how to move the ball on the ground, but the teams is a lot better than people think. This game hinges on whether or not the Cardinals can contain AP. Keep him below 120 yards and they’ll be right in it.

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville
Derek – Jacksonville. Hmm, why do I think the Jags will win...Lets go with a decent RB a decent D that will score the game winning TD with under 4 mins left in the game. Oh yeah home team too.
*Loren – Cincinnati. Raise your hand if you thought the Bengals D would be what’s holding the team together. Liar. Same thing if you thought Cedric Benson would re-emerge as a decent running option. Jacksonville just won’t be able to move the ball against the Bengals, on the ground or in the air, and the Bengals will do just enough to win.

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NFL Week 4 picks

Loren and I split our picks last week, he called the 49ers over the Bengals and I had the Cowboys of the Redskins. That leaves Loren two games ahead with a record of 11-7 while I'm at 9-9. On to the picks.

NY Jets at Baltimore

Loren - Baltimore. I just don't think the Jets offense has what it takes to go in to Baltimore and stay mistake free. It doesn't help that they are the second worst defense against the rush so far this year. Ray Rice is going to have a huge day.

Derek - Baltimore. This is a close one for me. But so far you have to look at the way both teams have played and realize that the Jets have not played well especially against the run and with the emergence of a second WR for the Ravens Revis can only cover one guy.

New England at Oakland

Loren - New England. This one is a lot tougher to call than at first glance. The Pats secondary has been ceding territory like Napoleon, giving up big chunks of land for cheap. Fortunately for them, their run D has been better than average which gives them a chance at containing McFadden. If the Raiders had any kind of passing attack, I'd be taking them in this match up.

Derek - New England. This should be a high scoring game but the Pats have too much fire power in the passing game to lose. The Raiders could win if the score is low but I don't see it happening. I hate picking a team traveling across country but I've got to in this case.

Pittsburgh at Houston

Loren - Houston. The Steelers once vaunted run defense has allowed nearly 100 yards per game. Their only game this year against a team that can stretch the field with a legitimate passing attack, Baltimore, they got slaughtered. Schaub and Co. will put the Steelers on their heels and should hold on in a relatively high scoring game.

Derek - Houston. I have a feeling the Steelers will pick it up soon but I'm not sure this is the game to do it. Their O line is in shambles and they will have to score plenty to keep up with the Texans.

Detroit at Dallas

Loren - Detroit. Lions are Super Bowl bound!!! Okay, just kidding. but with all the media adoration you'd think this team was looking to 3-peat, not simply 3-0 to start the season. The Lions are 39-124 since 2001, and have won exactly one post-season game since 1958, so I guess I can forgive folks for being giddy about their start. Well, expectations are only going to get higher after embarrass Dallas in week 4.

Derek - Detroit. The Lions are one of the hottest teams in the league and Megatron is having a huge year, 2 TD's a game is not a surprise. Dallas will have a hard time stopping the Lions high scoring offense and won't be able to match it with a banged up QB who couldn't manage a TD in the last game.

Carolina at Chicago

Loren - Chicago. Much as I'd love to watch the expression on the faces of Bears fans should the Panthers march into town and notch a win, I don't see it happening. Though the Bears have been mediocre to awful on defense, and even worse on offense (53 rushing ypg!), they should have enough to take care of the inconsistent and mistake prone Panthers.

Derek - Chicago. Lots of passing yards in this one since Mike Martz won't give the ball to Forte, but the Bears D should be good enough to contain Newton and win fairly easily.

Tennessee at Cleveland

Loren - Tennessee. I really wanted to take Cleveland here. Really. Even though their run defense has been atrocious, the Titans haven't been able to get CJ on track and may not make the Browns pay on the ground. But the Titans' defense is too good, second against the pass and 8th against the run with a quality win over Baltimore. Tennessee will be 3-1 and, if our predictions hold true, in an interesting fight with Houston for control of the NFC South.

Derek - Cleveland. I'm going out on a limb here, I'm picking the home team, I've watched both of these teams play once and I don't think either is very good. The Titans would seem to be the safe pick but I have Johnson isn't going to run will on the Browns and Hasselbeck will come back down to earth. The Browns held a bad offense down last week and will do it again.

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