NFL Week 12 Picks

The CHAMP IS HERE! THE CHAMP IS HERE! Hey have beating Loren 3-1 last week I've regained the lead. I've got 41-25 record and Loren has a 40-26 mark. On to the picks!

Green Bay at Detroit
Derek – Green Bay. The Lions are a good team, not a great team they can score and when they get to the QB they can hurt him on D, but the Pack are on another level. Detroit could score 35 and lose by double digits early.
Loren – Green Bay. This is likely to be the most entertaining game of the weekend. Seriously, a Super Tecmo Bowl score is definitely possible. Green Bay just has more weapons and Detroit doesn’t have Aaron Rogers.

Tampa Bay at Tennessee
Derek – Tennessee. The Bucs are not looking good lately and I think the Titans D will handle Blount. And it looks like CJ is working his way in to form.
Loren – Tampa Bay. Going out on a limb here, but I like what Blount brings to the Tampa Bay offense. They hung in with Green Bay last week and I just don’t see them dropping 5 in a row. Tennessee still can’t get their ground game going and now there are worries about Hasselbeck. Tampa Bay surprises Tennessee.

San Francisco at Baltimore
Derek – Baltimore. If you read this blog you know my thoughts on teams playing across country. Couple that with the fact that the 49ers are going to have to rely on Alex Smith to move the ball this could go sideways in a hurry.
Loren – Baltimore. I really, really wanted to take San Francisco but there are three factors that weigh in favor of Baltimore. The 49ers’ passing D is pretty awful, so even though they might shut down Ray Rice, Flacco will have plenty of room to throw. Second, Baltimore’s D is so strong that San Francisco will struggle to move the ball at all. If they get down and have to rely on Alex Smith to throw them back into the game, it could get ugly. Finally, San Francisco is crossing three time zones. That’s going to sap their energy.

Chicago at Oakland
Derek – Oakland. If I'm the Oakland D I put 11 guys in the box. I'm not confident the Hottub Hanie can hit an open receiver. The Raiders D is to good for the Bears in this situation. Just make sure they don't kick to Harris.
Loren – Chicago. I like the groove Chicago has found, and they are quietly 7-3 and have won 5 in a row including an avenging, and convincing, victory against Detroit. Yes, Cutler is out, but that might actually work in favor of the Bears in the short term. Hanie will throw more passes in the flat, hopefully getting the ball into Forte’s hands and letting him use his speed and power.

Buffalo at NY Jets
Derek – NY Jets. The Bills look like the complete opposite from they way they started the season. They can throw at all and I think that's going to hurt Fred Jackson's ability to run.
Loren – NY Jets. The battle of two teams circling the drain. Really, whoever loses here is out of the playoff race. I have no confidence in either team, and hope that Buffalo wins, but I think the Jets’ D and playing at home carry the day.

Denver at San Diego
Derek – San Diego. Below Loren makes some good points. I'm going to go with odds. Sure Tebow is 4-1 this year as a starter. But that would make the odds of him losing that much better, frankly he's due.
Loren – Denver. I have to go with the statistics, and Tebow is 4-1 as a starter. I’m not picking against the guy with an 80% winning rate. That would be like picking against the Packers or the Pats! Okay, seriously though, San Diego is in shambles with open arguing on the sideline and questions already surfacing about a lost season. All the pressure is on San Diego to turn the tide against a Denver team playing with nothing to lose and a whole lot of heart.

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NFL Week 11 Picks

Loren and I split last week so I still stand 1 behind. Our records now total Loren with 37-23 and I have 36-24.

NY Jets @ Denver
Loren – Denver. Derek and I are both making homer picks this week and, frankly, he probably has the better chance for a victory. The Broncos have found a way to confuse teams and play into Tebow’s strength, but it’s only a matter of time before defensive coordinators figure out the scheme. This week, I like the Broncos playing at home at high altitude, the Jets coming off a stinging loss, and Denver’s renewed hard-hitting defense.
Derek – NY Jets. You can't argue with success and since I can't argue I won't say anything about Tebow. But I can talk about the Jets, they are becoming a desperate team and we'll see how they react with their backs against a wall, they should have enough speed to contain the Broncos rushing attack.

Jacksonville @ Cleveland
Loren – Jacksonville. This is a hard game to pick, but it comes down to MJD. Cleveland has given up whole countries worth of ground to opposing running backs, 140 YPG and 4.4 YPC. This defense is beaten down and the Jags aren’t about to deviate from the formula for victory against this team.
Derek – Cleveland. This game should be a low scoring game and while the Browns have had injuries they should be solid now with the players they have already getting PT. It's a home game and they should win by a FG.

Buffalo @ Miami
Loren – Buffalo. Buffalo’s D isn’t going to give up the same kind of yards and points to Miami as they did to Dallas and the Jets. Miami also isn’t the kind of team I would bank on having a 3 game win streak. Their two previous wins are against KC and Washington. Buffalo, KC, Washington...one of these things is not like the other. Buffalo gets back on track this week with a convincing win.
Derek – Miami. Was that Bills hot start and aberration? Did the Bills give a large chunk of change to a QB with limited success, do the Dolphins know how to stop the run and how to use Reggie Bush? The answer to all that is yes.

Seattle @ St Louis
Loren – St Louis. With Bradford finally behind center, more holes will open up for Steven Jackson. In turn, Brandon Lloyd should also have more room to operate. Additionally, I just don’t trust the Seahawks to play as mistake free as they need to on the road.
Derek – Seattle. The last time the Seahawks won in St. Louis they walked away with a 7-9 record and a division title. Pete knows how to get players to play just right and if you saw how they rushed against the Ravens last week they shouldn't have a problem against the Rams.

Philadelphia @ NY Giants
Loren – NY Giants. What must it be like in the heads of the Eagles’ players right now? They can’t be certain, week to week, which team will show up, Jekyll or Hyde. Their worst loss of the season came against the Giants in week three, so that has to be weighing on them, too. If you can’t take care of business against Arizona, I’m certainly not picking you on the road against a team that already trounced you.
Derek – NY Giants. The demise of the Eagles continues, this has to be the biggest disappointment of the year besides the Colts. Vick might not play and probably shouldn't. I'm not taking Vince Young to be the Giants at home.

San Diego @ Chicago
Loren – Chicago. Congratulations, Philip Rivers, you just made the list of players I will never fantasy draft in the first five rounds. You join the ranks of Reggie Bush, Knowshon Moreno, Jay Cutler, and Joe Flacco. Now, please throw more tantrums and make faces letting everyone know that your teams has let you down, even though this may be the most talented offense you’ve ever played with. You suck.
Derek – Chicago. Besides Rivers would anyone else draft any of the above players in the first 5 rounds? Didn't think so. Anyway I think the Bears are one of the hotter teams in the league right now and don't be surprised if they make some noise come playoff time.

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NFL week 10 picks

Can you believe it's already week 10 of the NFL season? Last week I took one game from Loren so I'm only down one now. Loren sits at a 33-21 record and I'm right there with a 32-22 record.

Tennessee at Carolina

Loren – Carolina. Just don't like this match-up on the road while Tennessee has failed to get their running game going. Cam might have a big day through the air and on the ground, if Williams or Stewart don't beat him to it.
Derek – Carolina. This game could go either way. But I'm gong to lean towards the home team. You'd think that CJ would get it going at some point but until I see it I can't put too much faith in him.

Houston at Tampa Bay

Loren – Houston. Too many weapons against a defense the plays well in their scheme but isn't nearly as fearsome as it once was. The big wild card here is Blount. If the Bucs can get a good game from him and win time of possession, they may pull out a squeaker.

Derek - Houston. Another game that looks close but won't be by the end. Freeman has disappointed with turnovers this year compared to last year and while the Texans don't have Johnson they have Foster and you can't give him extra opportunities.

Denver at Kansas City

Loren – Denver. Halfway through last week's game against the Raiders, as the moronic Oakland fans, being the ever so creative types they are, were chanting Tebow Sucks, I realized it was time to root not just for the Broncos, but for Tebow as well. Yeah, he may not be the QB of the future, and asking your QB to run the option in the NFL is a gimmick, but if it's your best chance to win games now, so what? It's entertaining, and we beat the snot out of the Raiders. I can't ask for much more. Maybe they'll keep it rolling in KC as the Chief's defense tries to figure out a game plan.
Derek – Kansas City. KC has to be the most up and down team of the season so far. They started 0-3 then won 4 straight only to lose last week to the win-less Dolphins hurting their Andrew Luck chances. Not only losing but getting smashed 31-3. What team will show up? I'm thinking one that can stop the run.

New Orleans at Atlanta

Loren – Atlanta. I'm justifiably terrified of the Saints O in this match-up. However, they won't be able to put up 62 against the Falcons' D, and they are missing a number of key players on their own D. They are going to have huge match-up problems in their secondary with inexperienced backs covering big WRs in Julio Jones and Roddy White, guys who know how to use their size. The Falcons are going to throw a lot, get up early, and let their running attack bleed the clock.

Derek – New Orleans. This may be the one game I WANT to see this week. I'm hoping for a huge shootout and I thin the Saints are the team that can out shoot the Falcons. X factor here is Sproles, did that guy find the perfect system for his talents or what?

NY Giants at San Francisco

Loren – San Francisco. The Giants are quietly (if a NY team can ever do anything quietly) playing better than a lot of people expected, and now look like the favorites to take the NFC East. Unfortunately for them, they have no chance to run on SF. The 49ers know this and will alternately drop extra men into coverage or blitz the hell out of Eli. The Giants will have to be extra lucky to take this one on the road.

Derek – San Francisco. The Giants are playing well enough to beat any team. But when traveling across the country teams have huge issues, and they are playing one of the better teams in the league, I have a bad feeling about Manning this week and I think I see some INT's in his future.

New England at NY Jets

Loren – New England. Plain and simple, I don't think the Pats drop three in a row. They are too talented and coached too well. They know the importance of taking this game and, with it, almost all hope the Jets have of a division title. The Pat's running game is weak at best, but if anyone can pass against the Jets, it's Tom Brady.

Derek – New England. Three game losing streak for the Pats? Don't think so. Big rivalry game and the Pats own the Jets in the regular season.

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Top 5 Timbers moments from 2011

Our Timbers guru Bruce returned to provide his top 5 Timbers moments of 2011.

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NFL Week 9 picks

Well my overall lead didn't last long. Loren went 6-0 and I went 3-3. Leaving us with records of 30-18 and 28-20 respectivly.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Loren – New Orleans. I don't think the Saints' meltdown against St. Louis last week will have lasting effects. This is still one of the most potent offenses led by one of the top 5 QBs in the league. It will be hard to take them out in the dome, even though TB has had success against them lately. Josh Freeman has been too inconsistent this year for me to feel comfortable taking the Bucs on the road against a good team.

Derek – New Orleans. Couldn't agree more with Loren on this one. New Orleans is too good of a team to lose like they did last week, that was an aberration. They'll regroup and win going away in this one.

NY Jets at Buffalo

Loren – Buffalo. Derek and I have a friend who drafted Fred Jackson in two or three fantasy leagues this year, no higher than the 9th round. That has to be the biggest, and luckiest, steal of the draft. The Jets' secondary might stop Fitzpatrick, might make him look human, but they can't do that and plug the middle. The Bills just have too many weapons for the Jets to keep in check all day.

Derek – NY Jets. Mangold is back at center and you'll see the Jets running game back to where it should be. This will allow Sanchez to concentrate on play action passes and the short to mid range game.

San Francisco at Washington

Loren – San Francisco. I don't know what's going on in Washington, I just know it means a slow, painful, panicky fantasy football death. Shanahan, you coached my Broncos to two Super Bowl wins. I realize you don't have the original Football Jesus, but can you please figure out how to get Ryan Torain 60 yards on the ground, a catch or two, and one TD? Probably not this week against the Niners vicious run defense.

Derek – San Francisco. I know what's going on in Washington. They suck. Rexman played well above his talent level the first few weeks and now is benched for the tepid Beck. If a D doesn't have to worry about the QB passing it they can load up in the box. Smith will have another good game managing the ball and let the 49ers D win the game.

Cincinnati at Tennessee

Loren – Cincinnati. It may not always be pretty, but Cincinnati gets enough help from defense and special teams to let Andy Dalton and the offense make a few mistakes, learn from them, and get better each week. This will be a tough road game, but the Titans loan bright spot in the last four weeks was their not terribly impressive win over the Colts last week. With CJ yet to get his legs under him, the Bengals defense can cheat a little in the secondary and make life more difficult for Hasselbeck.

Derek - Tennessee. Tough call here, the Titans have been up and down and the Beangals are OK, not bad not great. Will CJ get going or will Dalton to Green pick up steam. Don't forget Benson is back running for Cincinnati. I guess I'm going with Tennessee since it's a home game.

St. Louis at Arizona

Loren – St. Louis. Kolb might be out, but the same could be said for Bradford. Regardless, the most important player on the field will be Steven Jackson. If he can display the same form as last week against the Card's mediocre run defense, St. Louis should fairly easily control the game come away with two straight wins, while handing Arizona their seventh, yes I said seventh, straight loss.

Derek - Arizona. Worried about this pick. But I see John Skelton, yes he'll be starting for the Card, just throwing the ball high in the air in the direction of Larry Fitzgerald. I think that'll be good enough to beat the Rams.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Loren – Pittsburgh. It always seems the Steelers come away from a loss determined to learn as much from it as they can and reverse the tables during the next matchup. Their coaching staff are masters at spotting strengths in the other team, weaknesses in their own, and devising game plans to address those issues. The season opening loss to Baltimore is a distant though embarrassing memory. They've claimed the division lead since then and last week they proved it's not just the league patsies they can beat into submission. I don't expect Ray Rice to see a sliver of daylight, and they'll dare Flacco to beat them through the air.

Derek - Pittsburgh. The Ravens just don't look like the team they did earlier in the year, while the Steelers look to be improving. I wouldn't be surprised by anything in this game, either team could win a close one or a blow out.

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