NFL week 4 picks

Great week last week, for me at least I went 5-1 opening up a 2 game lead on Loren. I’m sitting at 11-7 while Loren is at 9-9. On to the picks!

San Francisco at NY Jets
Loren - San Francisco. The Jets actually look pretty decent so far this year. They do have one glaring weakness, though; run defense. I see SF keeping the ball in Gore's hands and playing it safe. If the Jets cheat up, Smith has enough weapons and confidence to make a couple of big plays thought the air.
Derek – San Francisco. Normally I don’t like taking teams traveling across the country but I think the 49ers will be on the lookout for revenge. I’d be surprised if NY can score more than 2 field goals all game. Their O is terrible. Smith has a solid day and 49ers win by double digits.

Minnesota at Detroit
Loren - Detroit. I'm picking Detroit simply because they're the home team. I don't know what to expect from either Minnesota or Detroit. Neither has played consistently and they both have plenty of holes. I think Detroit will concentrate on shutting down AP and let Ponder have his chances. At this point in his career, I'm not betting on Ponder to carry his team.
Derek – Detroit. The Lions have the better team here. They should be able to score more easily than they have in recent weeks. Can the D stop Peterson? We’ll find out, they should load the box and tell Ponder he’s the one that’ll have to beat them. I don’t think he can.

New England at Buffalo
Loren - Buffalo. This one will probably come back to bite me, but I like the matchup for Buffalo. I know this means betting on NE to lose three in a row, but I can't shake the feeling that Buffalo has the right team to beat the Pats. They lost Spiller but have Fred Jackson back (fantasy backstabber)., and their defense has been much better after their opening game against the Jets. I think we get to see Fitzpatrick really open up against NE's terrible secondary.
Derek – New England. I don’t see this Pats team losing 3 in a row. They played poorly versus Arizona and lost to a good team in Baltimore at the last second. Brady will come out and use the short quick passing game to negate the Bills pass rush. I think the Pats D is a bit better than it has been in previous years and I think they’ll handle what the Bills have to offer.

New Orleans at Green Bay
Loren - Green Bay. With both of these teams throwing out stink bombs, I'm just going to play safe and take the team that's won a game and is playing at home. On the plus side, we may get to see 1400 yards of total offense!
Derek – Green Bay. The Packers have had a rough go of it this year, but not as rough as the Saints. If the Packers are looking to get back on track on the offensive side of the ball they couldn’t have picked a better team to play. Saints score in the 20’s lose by a bunch.

NY Giants at Philadelphia
Loren - NY Giants. Okay, I learned my lesson last week. Yes, the Eagles are better than the Panthers, primarily due to speed at several key positions. It will be harder for NY to stop McCoy and Jackson, but I like the attitude the Giants are bringing. They have renewed intensity and I expect their defense to put Vick on the run, something he hasn't dealt with well this year.
Derek – NY Giants. I’ve been picking them every week. Why stop now? Well ok I did pick the Eagles to win the division but man they don’t look so hot on the offensive side of the ball. How good is Nick Foles? Just kidding, well not entirely. Vick has been getting knocked around and I think the G-men have a good pass rush right? Right?

Chicago at Dallas
Loren - Dallas. Tell me how Chicago is going to win the NFC North after they beat a divisional opponent, or any decent team. Their wins have come over the Rams and Colts, while the Packers handled them fairly easily. I don't see them going into Dallas and playing defense the way Seattle did, taking away the Romo's weapons.
Derek – Chicago. I went back and forth on this one. It came down to this. The Cowboys have looked terrible on offense this year. I think the Bears D can keep that trend going. I expect a close 13-10 game or thereabouts.

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NFL week 3 picks

After two weeks Loren and I are tied with 6-6 records. I know the definition of mediocrity. On to week 3!

New York Giants at Carolina
Loren – Carolina. This is the point in the season where every Giants fan starts hyperventilating and contemplates jumping on the third rail. They needed a miracle last week to win and their vaunted D hasn’t been able to slow anyone down. The Giants need to hit rock bottom before they pull out of it and make the push that gets them into the post-season. Personally, I think they do it just so they can see how red Coughlin’s face can get. It might bypass the visible spectrum entirely this year and go right into infrared.
Derek – New York Giants. I think you need a line like the Giants have in order to beat Cam Newton. Without Nicks in the game NY will rely on their running game more than usual and that’ll be a good thing. Watch for this to be a lower scoring than everyone expects.

Philadelphia at Arizona
Loren – Philadelphia. Well, with the parity through the first two weeks in the season, we just had to pick this battle of undefeated teams. CARDINALS DYNASTY! Ok, seriously, the Cards are overmatched in a second straight week (some would argue they were overmatched against the Seahawks, too). Philly has tons of weapons and no inclination to actually use them. However, whatever luck the Cardinals have has to run out soon.
Derek – Arizona. I know the Cards are a bad team but if they can get to Brady they can get to Vick. The cards strength lives in their defensive backfield and this will help negate the Eagles big plays. Don’t forget the cross country trip.

Cincinnati at Washington
Loren – Washington. RGIII has become required viewing, just like Cam Newton. There is nothing better in football than a dynamic QB who can slice you up on the ground and through the air. I appreciate the skills Luck has, and no one knows who will end up with the better career or stats. Who do I want to watch play the game, Luck or RGIII? It’s not even close. I don’t have a personal stake in the Redskins other than a communal hatred of Dan Snyder, but their relevancy means less attention on the damn Cowboys, and that’s a victory for everyone.
Derek – Washington. Until someone slows the Redskins down it’ll be hard to go against them. Their offense is working well right now and I don’t think the Bengals will keep up.

Atlanta at San Diego
Loren – Atlanta. I’m a believer. Yeah, the Falcons are traveling across the country blah blah. This team can handle it. The Broncos are a solid team and Manning is still one of the best at managing scoring drives (1st quarter the obvious exception), but the Falcons pretty much owned that game. If they had put the pedal down when they had the chance, the game probably wouldn’t have been as close as it was. It should frighten other teams to know that the Falcons haven’t even figured out their best offense yet. Once Michael Turner gets really involved and they use more play-action to keep defenses honest, you could see scoring a la 2011/12 Green Bay, but with a legitimate running game. Yikes.
Derek – Atlanta. San Diego is waaaay past due for their beginning of the season slump. Plus, you know, the dirty birds are pretty good. They seem to play well on D and their passing game is clicking right now. I don’t expect Jones to drop passes like he did last week. Did I mention I picked them to be in the Super Bowl?

New England at Baltimore
Loren – Baltimore. I really didn’t know which way to go on this. After week 1, I would have gone with Baltimore without reservation. Their meltdown, though, against Philly leaves me with lots of questions about the identity of that team. New England, for all their holes, usually know how to expertly exploit a team’s deficiencies. I hope the Ravens get back to consistent running and limit Flacco’s long throws. They shouldn’t have to worry about the Pat’s running game, so they can launch a barrage at Brady and keep him off balance the whole game.
Derek – Baltimore. I keep thinking back to last year’s AFC Championship game, how did Baltimore not win that one? The Ravens fourth quarter last week aside I think they’ll play a full 60 mins this week and with the virtual absence of Welker a lot of the Pats big play potential is gone.

Houston at Denver
Loren – Houston. Bet you didn’t see that one coming. I’ve said from the beginning, though, that the Bronco’s schedule is tough. They should be happy to get to their week 7 bye with at 3-3 record. I just don’t see this being one of their victories. The Texans should run the ball 50 times. Foster and Tate can reel off 5, 6, 7 yards at a time, dominate possession, and literally run the Broncos off the field. Denver’s best shot is to hope for a reversal of last week’s game; Houston gets pass happy and makes mistakes the Broncos capitalize on. I think Kubiak is smarter than that.
Derek – Houston. Maybe the best team in the league so far and they look like they can run, pass and play D. If it wasn’t for a punt return for TD I’d say their special teams are playing well too. I’m going to waffle on Manning until I see more spirals and less wounded ducks.

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NFL picks week 2

OK week 2 of our NFL picks. We sucked it up last week but Loren sucked a little less than me. He's up by 1 with a stellar record of 3-3.

Chicago at Green Bay
Loren – Green Bay. I’m not buying the hype about Chicago. Forte still has to stay healthy all season and both Cutler and Marshall have to not be boneheads. Something bad is going to happen, like Marshall choking a coach or Cutler just plain choking. Regardless, Green Bay will be out to prove they’re still deadly and they should show up in a big way for a divisional game.
Derek - Green Bay. The Packets losing two in a row? At home? Come on...no really that can't happen can it?

Denver at Atlanta
Loren – Denver. This should be an even tougher test for the Broncos than last week’s win over Pittsburgh. However, the Falcons aren’t running the ball like they should, and a pass heavy attack plays right into Denver’s hands. By which I mean Denver is less likely to get obliterated by a passing attack than they are by a decent ground game. Plus, Manning with another week of gelling with his offense. Me likey.
Derek - Atlanta. I think the Falcons take it in a shoot out. If this was in Denver I'd go the other way.

New Orleans at Carolina
Loren – New Orleans. It’s entirely possible (and I’m hoping so for fantasy purposes) that Newton throws over 400 yards and 4 TD and runs another couple in, and the Panthers still lose. I don’t trust either of these teams from week to week, but the Saints have more experience and weapons.
Derek - New Orleans. I don't think the Saints are as good as I thought they were, sure it was only one game but they didn't have their "stuff" together. But I think they can take down a one man team in the Panthers.

Baltimore at Philadelphia
Loren – Baltimore. The Ravens D is going to eat Philly alive. And I will enjoy watching every minute of it.
Derek - Baltimore. I'll ride the Ravens all year. Will Vick make it out of this game? I'm not so sure.

Detroit at San Francisco
Loren – San Francisco. I’m officially on the 49ers bandwagon. They have a perfect game plan, aren’t afraid of anyone, have the craziest and arguably most intimidating coach, and they have home field advantage in this game.
Derek - San Francisco. Home game out west, that should be enough for me to pick them. Plus you know the 49ers are pretty good and everything. Man they could walk into the playoffs win only one or two loses. Dare I say zero? But Stafford will throw for over 350 yards again.

NY Jets at Pittsburgh
Loren – Pittsburgh. Sanchez is no Manning. When the Jets are down 20 at halftime, how loud will the chanting be for Tebow? Not as loud as it will be for Sanchez once they see Tebow in action.
Derek - Pittsburgh. The Jets come back to earth day. Yeah, I still don't they they're good and I won't be surprised if they score less than 20 for the next 5 games.

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NFL picks week 1

We're back for another year of NFL 6 pack of picks. Personally I'd go with a 6 pack of Rogue Ales – Hazelnut Brown Nectar...anyway on to our picks.

Dallas at NY Giants

Loren - Giants. The Giants have had slow starts the last couple of seasons, so I make this pick with some trepidation. They are the defending champs, though, and they're playing at home. Dallas, as usual, seems poised for either a complete train wreck or a 13 win season. I hoping for train wreck, and I'm taking the Giants.

Derek – Giants. Early game but this will play a pivotal role in who gets to the playoffs. One of these teams will be in and one will be out. I’m taking the Giants, they just seem to be all business and don’t forget the home field.

Buffalo at NY Jets

Loren - Buffalo. Whatever the Jets trot out on offense to start the season, it won't be half as good as their defense. With all the drama and questions, it's nice to be able to pick a sold, workmanlike Buffalo team. These guys run the ball, throw when they have to, and bolstered their D in the off season. Also, they'll have at least one game with Fred Jackson healthy.

Derek – Buffalo. I would like to take the Jets here but their offense is so offensive, in a bad way, I can’t until I see them well you know score an actual touchdown. Man they look terrible.

San Francisco at Green Bay

Loren - San Francisco. I changed my pick on this, which is probably a bad sign. Like a test in high school, you should usually stick with your first answer. Since I've taken the 49ers, though, I should probably have some concrete reason, some stats to back it up, some insightful commentary. Yeah, I've got none of that. I will say this, has any "great" team ever won as many games by as few points as the Packers did in 2011? That defense didn't get any better, and San Francisco is more dangerous than their 2011 version.

Derek – Green Bay. I’ve never agreed and disagreed with what one person has wrote in one paragraph before. Loren’s right, there’s not stats to back up a 49ers pick here. Agreed. The Packers D will be better than last year for the simple fact that it can’t be worse. Also San Fran will not be as good as they were last year especially on D and special teams. They’re a good team and I’ll pick them to win plenty but not against the best team in the NFC who’s playing at home.

Pittsburgh at Denver

Loren - Denver. At least the Broncos get a home game to open the league's toughest schedule. I'm banking on some tired Steelers playing in thin air to help the Broncos here. I also like the outside rush to harass Rapelisburger who looks like he's walking on broken glass every time he has to scramble. If the Broncos don't commit turnovers, they should be victorious in this match up.

Derek – Denver. I’d like to pick the Steelers, but I’m trying to think of who they are and not who they used to be.

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Loren - Baltimore. Cincy was a nice surprise last year and they look built for continued success, save for one glaring hole. Their defense is solid against both the pass and run, they have a decent O-line and a success story at QB, and one of the most exciting receivers in the league. The putrid mess at running back, though, is the team's Achilles heal. Bernard Scott and BJGE aren't going to help them win games, especially against defenses as good as Baltimore's.

Derek – Baltimore. The Bengals will not be as good this year as last year. Sorry, Cinny fans. Baltimore will be as good as they were last year and should win the division. Rice will have a big game.

San Diego at Oakland

Loren - Oakland. Here's my surprise pick for week 1. I don't believe that Ryan Matthews is fully healthy. I don't believe in the Chargers' receiving corps, and I don't believe in Philipp Rivers period. Nobody wants to play with him, and he can't with the important games. Sure, he'll throw for 300 yards and 2 TDs, but he'll also make bad reads, get picked a couple times, and blame everything on his teammates. The Raiders poached Denver's defensive coordinator, who needed less than a season to turn a bottom of the table defense into middle of the pack, and installed him as head coach. We should see a serious improvement in Oakland's D this season, McFadden will be a monster, and they'll have just enough pieces to have a moderately surprising season, starting with a week one Monday night win.

Derek – Oakland. This could be a tossup game, but I believe in the Raiders a bit more than I have in the past. I also believe that the Charges will thud out of the gate as usual. We do remember what Rivers was like the last time he didn’t have Vincent Jackson for a year right?

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