NFL Week 8 Picks

Loren had a 6-0 week last week but I only lost 1 game with a 5-1 record. I have a 5 game lead after 7 weeks. Records as of now? I've got a 27-15 record and Loren is on the positive side with 22-20.
 
Miami at NY Jets
Loren – NY Jets. Both the Jets and Dolphins have won games against inferior opponents and lost against better competition. Unfortunately for the Jets, they’ve seen Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Houston, and New England (and they kept in close in the latter two). I’ll take the home team and I expect to see the throw some strange offensive looks at the Dolphins to throw them off balance.
Derek – Miami. The Dolphins are playing better as of late and the Jets owe them one from their game earlier this year. The bye week will help Miami get some semblance of offense enough to pull out a squeaker.

Seattle at Detroit
Loren – Detroit. I’ll take the Lions at home in the dome. Losing Burleson is definitely a hit, but it will force the team to adjust and throw more short passes, force defenses up, and allow CJ to get some room to operate. Overall, Detroit has racked up yards offensively and shut down teams defensively. They just don’t have the wins to show for it. I think they take a step in the right direction this week.
Derek – Seattle. What is going on in Detroit. Stafford only has 4 TDs this year and not a single one of them is to Megatron. Surprising. I don’t think you turn that around playing against a Seahawk defense who’s absolutely killing the opposing QB right now.

Washington at Pittsburgh
Loren – Pittsburgh. Washington is dead last in passing yards allowed. Since Pittsburgh can’t run anyway, they’ll just air it out and play good D.
Derek – Pittsburgh. This should be a tough game both ways. I think the Steelers D will do just enough to keep in front of RGIII. Big Ben will have a big day through the air, don’t expect them to run it much, not that they ever do.

Oakland at Kansas City
Loren – Kansas City. I was halfway through writing about Oakland winning this on the road when I talked myself into KC. Yeah, they have a QB controversy, and a prima donna WR. They also have a killer ground game that gets better with Hillis coming back this week. They’re also rested after coming off a bye week, so Quinn has had extra time to prepare. Oakland remains winless on the road this year.
Derek – Oakland. Two bad teams, but at least the Raiders look like their trying. Beyond a big day from Charles what does KC have? Not much that’s right. I don’t think their D will be able to stop Run DMC and I’d expect a low scoring ground game here.

New Orleans at Denver
Loren – Denver. It just doesn’t let up for Denver. They’re treat coming off the bye week? A reinvigorated Saints team that has won two straight. Denver should be able to put pressure on Brees, but that doesn’t necessarily guarantee success. I’d be a lot more comfortable with this pick if Tracy Porter weren’t questionable. Either way, the Saints can’t play defense so how are they going to stop Manning and McGahee?
Derek – Denver. The Saints look better lately, at least their offense is scoring in bunches. But give Manning a home game against a bad D and I think he’ll put 4 good quarters together.

NY Giants at Dallas
Loren – NY Giants. Who knows what we’re going to get out of this one? Regardless, the Giants are a better team and the safer bet. Plus, it just makes your heart feel good to pick Dallas to lose.
Derek – NY Giants. I’ve watched 3 Dallas games this year. I just don’t see them beating a Giant team that seems to know how to win. On the ground or through the air. Don’t forget the Murray is most likely out for this game for Dallas menaing even more pressure on Romo.

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NFL Week 7 Picks

Loren and I battle to a tie last week. Loren loving the Denver comeback on Monday night two fold, one because he's a Broncos fan and two he picked the game correctly. Having said that we both sucked last week with 2-4 records. For the season I have a record of 22-14 and Loren has a 16-20 record.

Washington at New York Giants
Loren – New York Giants. After they stomped the 49ers on the road, I can’t fathom picking against them at home. Washington ranks dead last in pass defense, so look to Eli to have plenty of opportunities all game long.
Derek – New York Giants.  Two streaky teams here. The Redskins have been an offensive juggernaut this year with RGIII, but I think the front line of the G-Men can contain him enough to give Eli the ball for some 4th quarter magic.

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Loren – New Orleans. Following a theme from the Giants/Redskins game, Tampa Bay is second to last in pass defense. They just happen to be playing the team that ranks first in pass offense. If the Saints can rally even a mediocre defense, they should win handily.
Derek – New Orleans. I’m sure the Saints will score in this game, so you have to look at the D. I think they’ll be able to play well enough to make it tough for Freeman to have a good passing game. He’ll need to pass well in order to keep up with Brees.

Dallas at Carolina
Loren – Dallas. The Panthers have won a single game this year, and they were lucky to hold on to that one. In three of their five games, they’ve been held under 14 points. Yeah, the bye week will help them regroup, but it doesn’t fix a broken defense or get Newton more receivers to throw to.
Derek – Dallas. The more I watch Cam Newton the more I don’t like him. He can put up good stats but the winner label is peeling off. Now we could argue if Romo has a winner label too, but I’ll take the team with more talent. Romo and Witten seem to be on the same page and Bryant despite the drops is having a heck of a year stat wise.

Baltimore at Houston
Loren – Houston. This is the toughest call of the week. Baltimore lost the heart (and the crazy) of their defense. The Texans lost their perfect record and were obliterated by Green Bay. Questions all around. The biggest factor, though, is that the Ravens just don’t win that often on the road.
Derek – Houston. This game had all the makings of a knockdown drag out affair. Too bad for the Ravens Lewis and Webster are now out for the season. That should be just enough for the Texans to overtake Baltimore on the score board. They’ll be able to pass to set up the run in this game and control the clock.

Arizona at Minnesota
Loren – Minnesota. The luster has worn off the Cardinals, just in time for our discussion on Portland Men on Sports to look ridiculous. What else is new? I don’t trust Minnesota, but I trust the Cards even less on the road against a balanced offense.
Derek – Minnesota. The Vikings are showing us something this year. Ponder is playing well and using Peterson to the fullest extent possible. Arizona has lost two in a row and seem to be running out of luck. See Seattle and Miami games. Don’t forget this is a road game but both are dome teams.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Loren – Pittsburgh. Finally, we differ on a pick. The Steelers don’t have the record to show for it, but they are playing great defense yet again. The difference has been holding steady in the red zone where they’ve given up more TDs than we expect. They played better against Philly and had some mental errors that cost them against Tennessee. Meanwhile, Cincy lost their last two games to Miami and Cleveland. Barf. I get the sense the Bengals are looking to the bye week after their game with the Steelers and won’t play with the intensity they need to win.
Derek – Cincinnati. The Steelers have a lot of questions right now. So I’m not sure what to make of them. I do know that the Cincinnati has only been held under 24 points twice this season and that was against Baltimore and Miami. I think the Bengals will get to 20+ and I think that’s good enough to win.

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NFL Week 6 picks

Each week gets better and better for me anyway. After a 5-1 week I extended my lead over Loren to 6 games. I have a 20-10 record Loren is struggeling at 14-16.

Indianapolis at New York Jets
Loren - Indianapolis. No, this is not me jumping on the Indy bandwagon. This is me noting how putrid the Jets look, and that Indy has beaten both Minnesota and Green Bay this year. Indy is going to be a middle of the road team that plays a little better than expected. The Jets are going to be a middle of road team that plays quite a bit worse than expected. Indy in a minor upset.
Derek – New York Jets. I might be giving Loren a game here but I think this is one of those strange games where the Jets will find a copel fo explosion plays, not that I have any idea who will make those. The Colts be a good team last week but that was at home after a bye. Look for them to struggle more on the road.

Detroit at Philadelphia
Loren - Philadelphia. This is a matchup of last place in the NFC North vs first place in the NFC East. I'm steering clear of Detroit until they can show me some offensive consistency. Odds are with the home team, but this one isn't a lock. Despite leading their division, the Eagles have surrendered 19 more points than they've scored. That will catch up to you eventually.
Derek – Philadelphia. The Lions are the epitome of inconsistent right now. It’s crazy how up and down they are, especially Stafford. I’ll go with a slightly less disjointed team in the Eagles. At least they have the home field atvantage.

Dallas at Baltimore
Loren - Baltimore. Would you take Romo against the Ravens D at home? Me neither.
Derek – Baltimore. Could be a game where the Cowboys jump up and surprise you but I’ll hedge my bets with a top 5 team at home.

NY Giants at San Francisco
Loren - San Francisco. Wow, what a matchup. I like the 49ers at home. The Giants haven't exactly played their best against the toughest competition they've faced, and the 49ers are on a different level from Dallas and Philly. Throw in the long distance travel and you have a recipe for a Giant let down (see what I did there?). The Giants seem to play best with their backs to the wall, though, so I'll be tuning in to see how this goes down.
Derek – San Francisco. Obviously the Giants can win this game, see last years NFC Championship game. But I have a feeling that the G-men haven’t found their groove just yet. They’ll hang around but the 49ers will wear them out and strike with two big plays in the second half.

Green Bay at Houston
Loren - Houston. It seemed for the last couple of years that the Texans desperately wanted to be the Packers. How quickly things change. The Packers would give Rodgers left arm for either of Houston's running backs, and they might sell one of his legs for a decent DL. Green Bay is still dangerous week in week out, but don't listen to the apologists who say the Packers should be 3-2. They could just have easily lost that squeaker against New Orleans and the Seattle game and have just one win on the season. Houston is playing great football all around and it's hard to be against an undefeated team.
Derek – Houston. Just so we all know. I’m picking the Texans in every game this year until they prove me wrong.

Denver at San Diego
Loren - Denver. This one's for the division lead. I don't see Denver dropping this one, considering how close they played Atlanta, Houston, and New England. The Chargers are not close to being as good as those teams. Denver, though, has to stop tiptoeing into games and start scoring early points. Waiting until the second half to come alive is not going to get you to the playoffs.
Derek - San Diego. Denver’s had a tough schedule but just because they’re not playing a top team doesn’t mean they can go on the road in their division and just show up to win. They need to show me something in order for me to pick them. I’ll take the Chargers in a tough one.

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NFL Week 5 picks

Week 5 is upon us. I went 4-2 last week to Loren's 2-4. Meaning I have 4 game lead with a record of 15-9 to Loren's 11-13. Can he make a comeback? I for one hope not.

Atlanta at Washington
Loren – Atlanta. When Atlanta loses a game, I might bet against them. Nah, probably not. Still look like the most complete team in the NFL this year. Strong defense (probably playing a little below their skill level right now), strong on the ground and deadly through the air. Does any team have a better combination of skill and athleticism from their receiving crew? White, Jones, Gonzales get so many targets that their third WR, Harry Douglas, is an afterthought even though he could be a legitimate #2 on most teams.
Derek – Atlanta. It’s nice to see my Super Bowl picks doing well. The Falcons are taking care of business each and every week. Matty Ice is slinging it and the D is doing fine. I would think we’ll see limited action from Julio Jones until that hand heals but really that’s the worst thing that’s happened to the team this year. They’ll keep rolling in a high scoring game.

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh
Loren – Philadelphia. As Derek and I predicted before the season, Pittsburgh has struggled. Their defense, the heart and soul of the team, has been inconsistent. They shut down the Jets, but allowed over 30 points to the Broncos and Raiders. This is the same Raiders team that scored 6 against the Broncos last week. People are expecting the Steelers to be rejuvenated after their bye week, but they’ll have to show me more heart before I pick them over the first place Eagles who are riding high with big wins over the Ravens and Giants.
Derek – Pittsburgh. Everything here should point to an Eagles win. They finally played a turnover free game and have beat two solid teams recently. Add that to the fact that the Steelers D has been…well not themselves this season. But give Pittsburgh a bye week Polamalu and Harrison back and I think they can do enough to slow down the Eagles. I think Big Ben will throw all but 10 times in this game. Eight runs and 2 kneel downs at the end.

Seattle at Carolina
Loren – Carolina. This is the story of two inconsistent offenses, and whichever one pulls it together on that Sunday will likely get the win. I favor Carolina for two reasons. First, home field advantage against a cross-country team. Second, the Panthers nearly took out Atlanta last week and looked pretty good doing it. Yes, call it a moral victory for them. That growth carries over to this week and they take Seattle to the woodshed.
Derek – Carolina. I can’t wait to see how Seattle’s D handles Newton. It should be a good match up. I just think the Panthers will be able to scrap enough points together to beat a bad Seattle offense that’s traveling across country. Sure they beat the Giants on the road last year but making that trip and winning is tough.

Buffalo at San Francisco
Loren – San Francisco. Ugh. After the Bills jumped out 21-7 against the Pats, I thought last week’s prediction was safe, and I was sure a practical joke was being played on me when I saw the final. The 49ers don’t present the same offensive prowess as the Pats, but I can’t stomach taking the Bills after a meltdown like that. That’s the kind of loss that settles in your bones and weighs on a team the whole season.
Derek – San Francisco. The 49ers blasted a bad Jets team last week on the road, what do you think they’re going to do to a mediocre team at home? I don’t know what the spread is but it should be on e of those games where everyone takes the underdog because the spread is so big but they still can’t cover.

Denver at New England
Loren – Denver. Oh boy, here we go. This game is really a coin flip pick, but I’ll give some reasons why I think the Broncos can win. First, they’re a better run stopping D than Buffalo. A lot is being made of New England gaining 247 yards on the ground against the Bills. Denver dominated McFadden, didn’t allow a rushing TD to Houston, and completely kept Michael Turner in check, so the Pats shouldn’t be able to consistently run. Second, the Patriots can’t tackle. Thomas, Tamme, Decker, and company love their yards after catch and the Pats have been terrible at open-field tackling. Third, McGahee. Willis is averaging 4.7 YPC and has looked great with the exception of the Houston game. If he hits 100 yards on the ground averaging 4 yards per carry, the Broncos should control the tempo and will open up the field for Manning.
Derek – New England. That’s Pats are too good to lose two at home this year. Good thing they got that one loss out of the way against Arizona? Yeah still can’t figure that one out. Welker has woken up. Don’t expect the Pats to run like they did last week but they don’t really care/need to. Remember what New England did to Denver in the playoffs last year? Is Manning going to make that big of difference? No.

San Diego at New Orleans
Loren – New Orleans. I just have a feeling that Drew Brees is going to stick it to his old team. The Saints have lost their 4 games by an average of 5 points and have had a chance to win all of them. You can’t bet against this Saints team for too long without getting stung. Conversely, you can’t bet on Norv Turner for too long without getting stung.
Derek – New Orleans. The Saints aren’t thaaaaat bad. Brees is going for a record and knowing full well that he has to score a bunch since his D is nonexistent. Plus the Charges are traveling more than half way across the country and have Norv Turner as a coach. BTW I love that every time we pick the Chargers to lose one of the reasons is Norv Turner.

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