NFL Pick 'em - Week 8

Derek wants us to hurry up and figure out what the loser will be doing for the bet. He's the kind of guy who wants to know what torture is facing him so he can prepare for it. Not that a comeback is impossible. We're less than halfway through the season, he just has to beat me by as much as I've beat him to this point.

Leave a comment if you have a suggestion for the loser's penance.

Miami @ NY Jets

Derek - Miami. The wildcat beat the Jets once and you think it can again? I don’t, that’s why Miami is going to win through the air with a simple threat of running it.

Loren - Miami. Follow the trends; the league catching on to Sanchez, the Dolphins putting everything together on offense, key losses for Jets, key wins for Miami. The tide is shifting in favor of Miami.

NY Giants @ Philadelphia

Derek - Giants. NY had a bad misstep a couple of week ago at NO. They have learned their lesson and I expect to see their noses to the grind stone. Philly won’t have Westbrook (again) and will relay on passing.

Loren - Giants. One solid team looking for a little more consistency, one shaky team struggling to figure out personnel and strategy. I trust Tom Coughlin more than Andy Reid.

Denver @ Baltimore

Derek - Baltimore. That loss has to happen sometime right?

Loren - Denver. I think Derek's goading me here because this is a week I wouldn't think twice about picking the Bronco's opponent. Denver is prime for a fall to a team with a stout defense and unpredictable offense in a hostile environment. On the other hand, Josh McDaniels had two weeks to prepare.

Minnesota @ Green Bay

Derek - Minnesota. Sure there is a lot of hype over this game, the thing that I think is getting left out is that the Vikings are just a better team plain and simple.

Loren - Minnesota. Really wanted to go Green Bay here. Probably should have listened to my gut but the Vikings are coming off a loss and they're gonna be pissed. They have some injuries issues but they should still be able to run over the Packers. Give it to Peterson and let him grind out the game.

Atlanta @New Orleans

Derek - New Orleans. Just plain impressed with the Saints offense, I don’t see the Falcons keeping up.

Loren - New Orleans. Ditto. The Falcons could score 42 but the Saints would score 63. Should be fun!

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Blazers Opener - Recap

Almost everyone has experienced that morning after where you look at the person still snoring next to you and wonder what comes next. Was last night just the booze, the party, and a carefree feckless attitude? Will the two of you be able to hold a conversation? Have you made a horrible, horrible mistake?

Be honest, the answers to these questions are usually yes, no, and would I be a complete tool if I just quietly got dressed and snuck out?

But not everyone gets a morning after that starts with you both waking up at the same time, dying for a greasy breakfast at the same run down diner, and completely unable to stop talking to each other. You're hooked, you're intrigued, you're understandably nervous, but you see real potential.

These are your Portland Trailblazers.

They definitely have some flaws. Only time will tell if they become cute and endearing or if they become an overwhelming focal point of negativity. For instance, we have one point guard with a ton of heart, intensity, and a decent outside shot. Most importantly, though, he's figured out how to fit in with this team and contribute without being disruptive. We have another PG with amazing talent, size, and experience. Unfortunately, he doesn't have history with these players and his touches seem to come at the expense of our established scorers and leaders.

Will we figure out how to work around the flaws and come to terms with them, or will they grow and fester until they strangle the relationship?

Okay, enough with the metaphor. You get it.

Players that stood out:

Travis Outlaw - As much as it pains me to say it, Travis was very effective last night. He still only makes the correct drive-or-pull-up decision about half the time, but his athletic gifts tend to make up for his mental errors. I did like seeing him active in traffic on a few defensive possessions instead of getting lost, but his focus wavered as the game wore on. Even after last night I believe we should sell high for him.

Martell Webster - Played like he has something to prove, which is good because he does have something to prove. We need to see the 6th overall pick from 2005 on the floor. We need to see the shooting touch. We need to see an evolved understanding of offensive sets and a willingness to mix it up. But most importantly we need to see Martell have fun. Last night he showed all of those things plus a defensive intensity that could take him to a different level.

Greg Oden - What impressed me most about Greg is what he didn't do last night. He (mostly) didn't pick up cheap fouls due to being out of position or bringing his arms down. But he still went after players early and often. This had a noticeable effect later in the game as the Rockets started shooting fall-aways, away from the defensive pressure and away from the rim. He put the other team off balance just like a big man should.

Brandon Roy - It's definitely early to make this a blanket statement, but he was certainly getting All-Star calls last night. It was such a departure from previous seasons as to be staggeringly obvious. Hey, I'm not complaining. It's about time he started getting the benefit of the doubt.

Question marks:

The PG dilemma needs to be solved soon, whether it be from the players accepting their roles and buying in to the system or one of them taking command and making it a moot point. But you can quote me, if this doesn't get sorted quick it will cost the Blazers wins. They can't afford that in a stacked Western Conference.

Rudy Fernandez - didn't look happy, didn't look in rhythm. He played with a lot of hustle and I commend him for that. I just can't shake the feeling that his need to start, his desire to be a superstar and focal point of a team, will wear on him and the rest of the team. He's a triple caramel non-fat macchiatto and the rest of the Blazers are a cup of coffee. Get my drift?

Thank god it was the Rockets last night and not a good team. Not to demean the Rockets, but the Blazers overall performance last night would not have resulted in a victory against any other Western Conference teams but the Clippers, Kings, and Grizzlies. Though sometimes efficient, even inspired, the Blazers were more often careless with the ball and hesitant. Teams with killer instincts would have seen that and found ways to capitalize. With Denver, Atlanta, and San Antonio in our next 6 games, there's no time to waste. Cohesion should be the word of the day.

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Crazy bet time for the 09-10 season

For the third season in a row the PMS crew/fans will be makeing crazy prediction for the upcoming Blazer season. Here's how it works. We each make a crazy prediction, then we discuss if it is crazy enough and then if your prediction comes true you get a cool $5 from everyone else. So without further ado...

Derek: Oden scores 50 points in a game
Loren: Webster wins three point contest
Chris: Juwan Howard wins sixth man of the year
Philipp: Oden records a triple double
Ryan: Blazers win 63 games in the regular season

Go ahead and leave your crazy bets in the comments section (please note we ain't paying you nothing). GO BLAZERS!!!

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NFL Pick 'em - Week 7

Wow what a disastrous week for me last week. I thought I’d play some catch up but instead go drilled on every pick. I was down three now I’m down seven. Enough said.

Miami at New Orleans

Derek

New Orleans. Sure I’d like to take my team here. They are coming off a bye week and have played well lately. But have you seen NO offense? The Dolphins only chance is to control the ball for 45 mins like they did with Indy, but they still lost that game.

Loren

New Orleans. Unless the Saints over-think this game it should be a walk in the park. The Saints just have too many weapons for a Dolphins team that controls clock but doesn't score effectively. But Ronnie Brown can have a big fantasy day right? Right?

San Francisco at Houston

Derek

San Francisco. I should go with the home team, but it’s gong to be close. Gore should be back and the 49ers have had the bye week to prepare. Couple that with the fact that I need to catch up to Loren I have to pick my spots. Oh and Crabtree is playing. So yeah I’ve talked my self into it.

Loren

Houston. There are two games this week I'm a little conflicted about and this is one of them. I agree with Derek, the 49ers are a good team and the bye week makes them scary. But I still think that Houston is getting ready to go on one of those mid-season tears, like they seem to do every year, and they're at home.

Minnesota at Pittsburgh

Derek

Minnesota. This should be a great game, could come down to the last play. But the Steelers have not played like the Steelers much and I’ll have to take the undefeated team.

Loren

Pittsburgh. Let me state the absurdly obvious; Minnesota will lose at least one game this year. The Vikings are not the same caliber of team as the Patriots team that went undefeated. Now, look at this week; on the road, either the best or second best defense they've faced all year, best offense they've faced all year, and the Steelers will likely have their defensive compass back in the form of Troy Polamalu. I smell 6 and 1.

Atlanta at Dallas

Derek

Atlanta. Big D just does not look good, they seem to be stepping up their efforts to be called the most unorganized organization in football, too bad for them they have to go a ways to beat out Oakland.

Loren

Atlanta. I can't wait to see the Falcons dance the dirty bird on the Dallas star. Maybe Jerry Jones will have a conniption in his luxury box and his facelift scars will pop. He'll be wheeled out on a stretcher looking like Pizza the Hut. These are my dreams, don't mock me for them.

Chicago at Cincinnati

Derek

Chicago. This could be a tougher game than I think, I just need to see a bit more out of the Tiger pups before I become a believer. That and I think the Bears are a darn good team on both sides of the ball.

Loren

Chicago. The Bears are quickly discovering their identity, and they've done it with a really difficult schedule. They have a modest record of 3-2 but they are 15 points from undefeated and their only losses are to Atlanta and Green Bay. They also beat the Steelers by holding their offense to 14 points. This is also a revenge game after being outplayed last week. Don't make the Bears angry, you wouldn't like them when they're angry.

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NFL Pick 'Em - Week 6

No change in the standings still, despite best efforts by both of us to pick games we disagree on. Each of us went 2-3 last week, and both made one really good call and one horrendous call. The trend will likely continue this week, mostly because neither of us knows what the hell we're talking about, but also because there are a bevy of great games. So many, in fact, that we had to break with tradition and make it an even six-pack.

Now if you are feeling like you totally disagree with us, you can always try your hand at Sports Betting. I'm almost positive you can do better than us. Frankly, that shouldn't be hard. In fact picking the opposite of what we pick could fill up your pockets.

Let the madness begin.

Chicago @ Atlanta

Loren - Atlanta. Wow, how confident do you think the Falcons feel right now? Is it Michael Crabtree after the draft confident, or is it Michael Crabtree after his team plays well without him and he suddenly has MC Hammer as a mentor confident? With the first, they coast along firmly believing they are destined to see things get better and better. With the other, more reasonable viewpoint, they realize they better get to work. The Falcons still have a couple of major weaknesses but some elbow grease and this could be a really really good team.

Derek - Atlanta. A couple of weeks ago I might have picked the Bears, but they seem to be playing down and the Falcons went across the country and rolled a decent 9ers team. I’ll take the dirty birds at home.

Baltimore at Minnesota

Loren - Minnesota. Vikings at home? Cedric Benson just shredded the Ravens run D? Rejuvenated Favre effectively managing the team and slinging it? People warming to Brad Childress? It's just Minnesota's year (until the post-season), get on the band wagon.

Derek - Minnesota. I’d love to pick Baltimore here but I can’t, they just don’t have it lately and that is cause for concern, the Vikings D will be the game changer in this one, look for their own TD to be scored.

New York Giants at New Orleans

Loren - Saints. I don't care if the Giants are the best team no one is really talking about. I don't care if they're better than their Super Bowl winning team. I don't care that they would destroy the Saints in a playoff game. This is week 6, Brees hasn't gotten tired yet, defenses haven't figure out how to contain this offense, and the Superdome will be smoking. Saints up big early, not enough time for the Giants to catch up.

Derek - New York Giants. I think the Giants D will hold up enough to keep the game close and the Giants running game will be able to hold the ball long enough to pull out a close one.

Arizona at Seattle

Loren - Cardinals. I don't think I would normally take the Cards on the road against this Seahawks team, but Seattle has a patchwork offensive line for this game and I'm nowhere near convinced that Hasselbeck is recovered. All it takes is one hit...

Derek - Seattle. The Seahawks are back on the map. Sure they beat a lousy team, but the QB is back and has found out how good TJ can be. Throw him the ball and let him run. Cards need to step it up but it won’t be in this game.

Kansas City at Washington

Loren - KC. KC is bad, but improving. The Redskins should be good but are getting worse. The Chiefs are a couple of plays from 2-3, the Redskins are a couple of plays from 0-5. Look at their opponents; KC's opposition is a collective 12-12, while Washington's is 2-17. This game screams KC blowout followed by an early morning Monday firing.

Derek - Washington. Sure their O is terrible but their D is pretty good. Should be good enough to stop the Chiefs who are just all around bad, and I mean bad.

Denver at San Diego

Loren - Denver. I'm riding this horse until it runs into the ground. And I just can't believe the line on this game at BetUs with the Broncos at +3. Did they see the way McDaniels managed to out-Belichik Belichik? They think he can't out-Norv Norv? No, wait, that didn't come out right...

Derek - San Diego. I keep picking against Denver, I have to be right at some point. I say the Chargers D line is good enough to cause pressure and force Orton to make some mistakes. Rivers is playing very well and he will have two healthy running back to use in this game.

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Oden, Trade Potential, and Other Blazer Ramblings

With a few pre-season games under the belt, it's time for a couple of quick thoughts on the Blazers.

Everyone has fawned over Oden's offensive improvement ad nauseam so there's no need for me to contribute. What I'm digging about Oden's game so far is the consistency. Here are his points/boards lines for the 4 pre-season games: 18-9, 20-12, 7-8, 17-10. Outside of the Clippers game, in which it seemed every Blazer was out of rhythm, Oden has been solidly effective at both ends of the floor. He's showing an ability to stay out of foul trouble but still be a defensive menace, and he's surprising people with a rediscovered deft offensive touch.

But there's this little bit of befuddlement; through the first two games Oden was 16 of 19 from the line. I'm no math wiz, but my calculator is telling me that's pretty good, particularly from a center whose career FT% is around 65%. The next two games? 2 of 4. Maybe someone can enlighten me as to how a beast like Oden gets exactly one foul call in each of these games. An interesting extrapolation, perhaps, is that Oden needs to get to the line with regularity to establish his FT groove and his offensive improvement may well act as catalyst. Oden as starter will definitely give me a chance to test this theory.

All in all, it looks like we're getting much, much closer to seeing the player we thought we were drafting. Frankly, the final piece of the puzzle for this team should be an anchor in the middle and Oden is giving us a tantalizing glimpse of the possibilities.

The next observation is predicated on the accuracy of the preceding paragraph. If Oden blossoms into an all-around monster, the next most pressing need is a legitimate backup PF (or starting PF should Aldridge go down for any length of time). Obviously the Blazers brain trust feels the same way after trying to pry Millsap and Lee from their respective teams.

We can speculate that trades have been close at hand the last couple of years, but you have to think this is the year the Blazers pull the trigger. Exhibit A: Jerryd Bayless.

Bayless doesn't want to see DNP next to his name in the box score. What's more, you can feel the resentment and disappointment growing with every game. Bayless wants to play now and that simply isn't going to happen in Portland. He needs to be packaged in a deal before his attitude metastasizes and makes an impact on the team. Best of luck, Jerryd, but you won't find what you need here.

Opinions on Outlaw run the gamut, but I'm firmly in the camp that believes his mistakes outweigh his contributions and that we've seen the best we'll see from Travis. He's not skilled enough to play the 3 (not to mention the depth at SF) and he doesn't have the size and strength needed to play the 4. He's a tweener and tweeners usually only stick if they have incredible offensive talent or overwhelming defensive intensity. Outlaw has neither.

The 64,000 dollar question is, "What can we get in return for Bayless and Outlaw?" Addendum: do we need to throw player X in the mix to get something done, and who would that be?

There isn't a glut of skilled PF to be had for the asking. Carl Landry? Glen Davis? Tyrus Thomas? I think KP would have to be drunk and high to trade Bayless, Outlaw, and (insert player name here) for that type of player + filler. Unless we catch an owner with a good player and a desperate desire to shed salary, there may not be anything remarkably better within reach.

I could easily slap out another thousand words on Roy/Miller/Blake/Rudy but I'm sitting on that until we see another few pre-season games. I'll summarize for now by saying the present and the future look good in Rip City.

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Fandom

My wife doesn't understand my love of sports. She has told me this on countless occasions. So I recently tried to explain it to her this way. I view my favorite teams as friends or distant family, and I hope they succeed. She then asked what happens if they succeed, I thought about it for a bit and realized that since I became a fan I’m not sure any of my teams have succeeded at least not on a national or world championship level.

University of Oregon Men’s basketball team: Two elite eight appearances.

University of Oregon Men’s football team: Finished second in 02.

Miami Dolphins: Lost in the AFC championship game a couple of times.

Portland Trail Blazers: Lost in the finals twice and the Western Conference Championship three times.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Boarder line.Won the 88 World Series. However the moment I became a fan was when I saw Gibson hit that home run to win game 1. It doesn't feel like it counts. Lost in the National league Championship series in 08.

How about you? How have your teams done since you've cheered them on?

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NFL Pick 'Em - Week 5

This will be interesting. Neither Derek or I know what each other will be picking this week. I'm not sure I've ever posted without knowing Derek's picks and it just feels like I'm breaking a lucky habit. Wouldn't be surprised to see some bad luck thrown my way with some great games this week. Many of them are too close to feel good picking either way.

Cincinnati at Baltimore

Loren - Baltimore. What a fantastic team they have up in Baltimore. There's consistent positive QB potential from Flacco, an ageless D that has recovered its fire, and the fans are going crazy with it. Too much for the Bengals who have looked decent but inconsistent.

Derek - Baltimore. Some people are pumping Cincinnati up and I can see why, that being said they are not on the same level as the Ravens. I don't think the Bengals will score more than twice in this game and that's not going to be enough.

Atlanta at San Francisco

Loren - Atlanta. The Falcons are physical enough to hang in a game with SF's new found killer D. Matt Ryan looks better every week and is really getting in sync with his targets, plus the Niners are a little banged up and distracted by the Crabtree saga. Oh, and MC Hammer and Deion Sanders will probably be there. Definitely have to go with Atlanta.

Derek - San Francisco. Getting Crabtree will help the 49ers, but not as much as getting Gore back would have, however the Falcons are traveling across country and as any good bookie will tell you it's going to be tough for them to win.

New England at Denver

Loren - Denver. OK, this is where my homer instinct kicks in...and inevitably kicks me right in the nuts. NE has an offense heads and shoulders above what this vaunted Denver D has faced so far. Plus the Pats have a defense far savvier than any Denver's seen. This game will say a lot about where both of these teams really are. The most interesting stat here, though, is that Kyle Orton is 25-12 as a starter. You'd take that from your starting QB.

Derek - New England. This should be a fairly easy game for the Pats. They are a far supieriour team and only need to battle the elements. Oh and Tom Brady is 100-26 as a starter.

NY Jets at Miami

Loren - Jets. Even if Edwards doesn't play this week, the Jets are still the pick here. Miami has no real direction offensively. Just when you think they look dangerous, a new and untested QB. Definitly bad karma to be playing the Jets that week. Not a good week to be Chad Henne.

Derek - Miami. Loren had is homer pick allow me to have mine. Chad Henne went on the road controlled the ball and beat the Bills. Now he has a tougher task but will be at home where the pound it out style of the Dolphins D will where down the Jets. If it's close in the fourth the Fins will win.

Houston at Arizona

Loren - Houston. Houston has to break out some time, right? They get on a 6 game tear and scare the bejeezus out of a lot of teams, right? That offense is surely too talented, right?

Derek - Arizona. Houston does need to break out but it won't be in this game. The Cards are at home and play so much better there than on the road. Look for Warner to find his big targets time and time again against a Houston D that has not lived up to expectations.

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NFL Pick 'Em - Week 4

It's been an interesting 3 weeks. A few undefeated teams from out of nowhere, a couple of teams *cough Titans cough* playing well below expectations, and a jumbled mess of 2-1 and 1-2 teams.

It all adds up to +3 on the season for me, Loren, after getting a last second save from Brett Favre (how do you like them apples, Derek?). There won't be any change in the standings this week since we couldn't find any games we'd disagree on.

On to week 4 picks...

Baltimore @ New England

Derek - Baltimore. Hard hitting D with a good O, something that we have never seen in Baltimore before including their Super Bowl runs, this team was good last year, they are really good this years. The Pats don’t look to good when you can get to Brady, the Ravens will get to Brady often.

Loren - Baltimore. Derek’s assessment is spot on. The one caveat I’ll throw out there is that New England is famous for finding ways to fix problems. When they figure out their O line issues, and they will, you don’t want to be betting against them that week no matter who they're playing.

NY Jets @ New Orleans

Derek - New Orleans. The Saints will simply smother the Jets with points, it’s going to be one of those rare NFL games where the teams will trade scores for long stretches of the game, too bad for the Jets a rookie QB won’t be able to keep up.

Loren - New Orleans. The Saints are an offensive juggernaut, which is even scarier when you consider that we haven’t seen production from Henderson or Reggie Bush yet. If they get all the gears meshed, this could be an offense for the ages. Ryan’s D is good, but not that good.

Dallas @ Denver

Derek - Dallas. Big D travels to High D, and will be by far the best team the Broncos have played this year. The Cowboys have a good offense and a decent D this should be enough to trip up Denver at home. Also Orton will look bad for the first time this year, book it.

Loren - Dallas. I really want to pick my Broncos here but Dallas is a lot more physical than the other teams they’ve played so far. I’m not saying Denver can’t pull this out, especially playing at altitude at home, but the lack of a consistent run game will definitely hurt them.

San Diego @ Pittsburgh

Derek - San Diego. Pittsburgh has not looked good this year even in their win they looked bad. San Diego is off to it’s normal slowish start. But they will turn it around and have a D that can stop and tackle Big Ben.

Loren - San Deigo. The Steelers are reeling, hurt and confused with young players making mistakes on the offensive side. Their D is too banged up to cover for them in long stretches. Tomlinson may not have that something special he used to, but San Diego finally has other weapons to make up for it.

Green Bay at Minnesota

Derek - Minnesota. Lots of people were on the GB bandwagon this year and I’m not sure if much has changed but they are about to go 2-2. All Day will run all over them and Favvreere will only turn it over once.

Loren - Minnesota. The Vikes just seem to have that aura this year. It’s their time, their going to win, and only the football gods can stop them. This would be the week for the football gods to step in and punish Favre, but the Vikes have their own god in Adrian Peterson. I expect a really good game.

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