Thursday, October 15, 2009

Oden, Trade Potential, and Other Blazer Ramblings

With a few pre-season games under the belt, it's time for a couple of quick thoughts on the Blazers.

Everyone has fawned over Oden's offensive improvement ad nauseam so there's no need for me to contribute. What I'm digging about Oden's game so far is the consistency. Here are his points/boards lines for the 4 pre-season games: 18-9, 20-12, 7-8, 17-10. Outside of the Clippers game, in which it seemed every Blazer was out of rhythm, Oden has been solidly effective at both ends of the floor. He's showing an ability to stay out of foul trouble but still be a defensive menace, and he's surprising people with a rediscovered deft offensive touch.

But there's this little bit of befuddlement; through the first two games Oden was 16 of 19 from the line. I'm no math wiz, but my calculator is telling me that's pretty good, particularly from a center whose career FT% is around 65%. The next two games? 2 of 4. Maybe someone can enlighten me as to how a beast like Oden gets exactly one foul call in each of these games. An interesting extrapolation, perhaps, is that Oden needs to get to the line with regularity to establish his FT groove and his offensive improvement may well act as catalyst. Oden as starter will definitely give me a chance to test this theory.

All in all, it looks like we're getting much, much closer to seeing the player we thought we were drafting. Frankly, the final piece of the puzzle for this team should be an anchor in the middle and Oden is giving us a tantalizing glimpse of the possibilities.

The next observation is predicated on the accuracy of the preceding paragraph. If Oden blossoms into an all-around monster, the next most pressing need is a legitimate backup PF (or starting PF should Aldridge go down for any length of time). Obviously the Blazers brain trust feels the same way after trying to pry Millsap and Lee from their respective teams.

We can speculate that trades have been close at hand the last couple of years, but you have to think this is the year the Blazers pull the trigger. Exhibit A: Jerryd Bayless.

Bayless doesn't want to see DNP next to his name in the box score. What's more, you can feel the resentment and disappointment growing with every game. Bayless wants to play now and that simply isn't going to happen in Portland. He needs to be packaged in a deal before his attitude metastasizes and makes an impact on the team. Best of luck, Jerryd, but you won't find what you need here.

Opinions on Outlaw run the gamut, but I'm firmly in the camp that believes his mistakes outweigh his contributions and that we've seen the best we'll see from Travis. He's not skilled enough to play the 3 (not to mention the depth at SF) and he doesn't have the size and strength needed to play the 4. He's a tweener and tweeners usually only stick if they have incredible offensive talent or overwhelming defensive intensity. Outlaw has neither.

The 64,000 dollar question is, "What can we get in return for Bayless and Outlaw?" Addendum: do we need to throw player X in the mix to get something done, and who would that be?

There isn't a glut of skilled PF to be had for the asking. Carl Landry? Glen Davis? Tyrus Thomas? I think KP would have to be drunk and high to trade Bayless, Outlaw, and (insert player name here) for that type of player + filler. Unless we catch an owner with a good player and a desperate desire to shed salary, there may not be anything remarkably better within reach.

I could easily slap out another thousand words on Roy/Miller/Blake/Rudy but I'm sitting on that until we see another few pre-season games. I'll summarize for now by saying the present and the future look good in Rip City.

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