Friday, October 7, 2011

NFL week 5 picks

So, Derek has apparently tapped in to my superior brain waves because the last two weeks he’s been picking games the way I would. While I’m flattered and all, that just doesn’t make it very interesting for you.

We’re going to switch it up.

During weeks on which we can’t seem to disagree on games, we’ll select a six pack of close matchups and take turns selecting a victor. Once Derek selects a game, for instance he selected Indianapolis over KC, I have to go with the other team and justify why they should win. Then I get to pick the next game which, in this case, was Philadelphia over Buffalo.

This adds another element to the game in that we are also selecting the games in the order of confidence we have in the outcome. Should be completely confusing and darn near unmanageable. Sounds like fun!

We’ll put an asterisk next to the name of the person who got first pick on the game. Here are the picks:

Kansas City @ Indianapolis
*Derek – Indianapolis. The Colts have been right in their last two games. and Painter looked 100 times better that I've seen him play before. They have a home game against a terrible KC team and their due.
Loren – Kansas City. I actually feel good about this pick. The Chiefs have to win some time, and what better team than the Colts to give them that first victory. Painter will be making his second start and I predict a steady diet of stunts and blitzes to keep him on his toes. If he doesn’t get rid of the ball faster, he’s going to have a miserable day.

Philadelphia @ Buffalo
Derek – Buffalo. I would have leaned to Philly on this one but I do get a home team that's been playing great on the offensive side of the ball, if they can eliminate the Eagles big plays then they have a good chance.
*Loren – Philadelphia. I know Buffalo is on a hot streak, but the Eagles are better than they’ve been playing. Last week was a wake up call and I expect their offense to find a groove against a Buffalo defense with the consistency of a wet paper towel.

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
*Derek – San Francisco. I always lean heavily to the home team when their playing a cross country opponent plus the Bucs are playing on a short week. The 49ers have been impressing me lately with their D. Expect a grind it out football game.
Loren – Tampa Bay. Well, I’m not thrilled about getting stuck with this pick. Tampa is heading across three time zones to play a decent team that just got a morale boost with a big comeback against Philly. Tampa has a quality win over Atlanta and that 27-20 loss to Detroit in the opening week is looking better all the time. LeGarrette Blount looks to be getting on track, now Mike Williams just has to step up and do his best Megatron impression.

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh
Derek – Pittsburgh. Again a home game for a fading/ageing team. I have a feeling the Steelers are against the wall but I don't see them going down easy. Big Ben can sling it with a bad foot and the D will step up.
*Loren – Tennessee. “For some strange reason it had to be, it was all a dream about Tennessee.” This one is just a hunch, but I have a feeling that the Titans’ monstrous D and multi-pronged offense will be enough to handle the Steelers. Roethlisberger is hobbling and is facing a vicious squad. Also, who would have thought that the struggling Titans rushing attack would see Pittsburgh as an opportunity to get going, but the Steelers are giving up almost 120 yards on the ground.

Arizona @ Minnesota
*Derek – Minnesota. A modified cross country trip. The Vikings are not as bad as they should be and expect a huge game from AP and McNabb's best game this year. The Cards D is terrible and the Vikings aren't going to let another half time lead slip away.
Loren – Arizona. Though they are 1-3, the Cardinals’ three losses are via a combined 8 points. They have to be better against the pass and they really need to figure out how to move the ball on the ground, but the teams is a lot better than people think. This game hinges on whether or not the Cardinals can contain AP. Keep him below 120 yards and they’ll be right in it.

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville
Derek – Jacksonville. Hmm, why do I think the Jags will win...Lets go with a decent RB a decent D that will score the game winning TD with under 4 mins left in the game. Oh yeah home team too.
*Loren – Cincinnati. Raise your hand if you thought the Bengals D would be what’s holding the team together. Liar. Same thing if you thought Cedric Benson would re-emerge as a decent running option. Jacksonville just won’t be able to move the ball against the Bengals, on the ground or in the air, and the Bengals will do just enough to win.


3 comments:

Barry Beitel said...

Well, I was back on track last week, missing only the SF comeback against Philly and the Bengals over the Bills. So, for this week:

PHI @ BUF: Normally, this would be a no-brainer, but the Eagles haven't played very well yet this year. I have to go with the 3-1 Bills at home.
AZ @ MIN: Both teams stink, but the Cards managed to lose to Seattle. The Vikes get in the W column on the legs of A.P.
NO @ CAR: The Newton-led Panthers are much better than anyone thought, but not enough to beat the Saints.
KC @ IND: Both teams won their divisions last year, and both will be lucky to win 6 games this year. Still, I have to take KC on the road, until the Colts prove to me they can win.
OAK @ HOU: This is a tricky one with A.J. out. I still think Houston is better on both sides of the ball, especially at home.
CIN @ JAX: The Bengals are a decent team flying under the radar. They should handle the Jags.
SEA @ NYG: Seattle never plays well in NY against the Giants. The G-Men should win by 10 or more.
TEN @ PIT: Pittsburgh is angry and needs this game to turn it around. The Titans are playing well, but will their ground game get going? I like the Steelers in a close game.
TB @ SF: The Niners are the worst 3-1 team in football. They have the fortune of playing in the NFC Worst. I'll take the Bucs, who have a real QB and real defense.
NYJ @ NE: The Jets are circling the drain this season, but always seem to sneak one against NE. Not this time. Patriots by 14.
SD @ DEN: The Chargers seem to get better every week, unlike Denver. I'll look for this to stay close through the third quarter, then the Chargers pull away late.
GB @ ATL: Atlanta almost lost to Seattle. No question they aren't as good as last season at this point. Green Bay should win convincingly.
CHI @ DET: The Bears are about to walk into a buzz saw. The Lions are for real. I don't see this one requiring another miracle comeback. Lions win.

Barry Beitel said...

I have to amend something I said about Seattle. I no longer think the Atlanta game was a fluke. I think Seattle has found something with this no-huddle scheme on offense. As long as Jackson and his happy feet stay on the sidelines, they can produce. Seattle's defense is light years better than the past few years, especially against the run. As long as their pass coverage keeps them in the game, they have a good shot against just about anyone. They have an absolutely BRUTAL schedule, however.

Barry Beitel said...

I also should have changed my Oakland/Houston pick after Al Davis' death. Houston was banged up and Oakland was seriously inspired.